| 摘要: |
| 内河航道服务区水域面积是内河航道服务区规划设计的关键问题。考虑到船舶进入服务区和服务时间的随机性，提出了基于船舶交通流特性和服务特征的仿真模型，并将其用于分析服务区水域面积。以长三角地区典型航道服务区为例，基于AnyLogic平台进行仿真分析，结果表明，模型预测的服务区停泊船舶数量和水域面积与实际情况吻合。敏感性分析发现，服务区停泊船舶数量与航段上船舶流量、服务特征参数的均值成线性正比关系，与服务特征参数的概率分布类型关系很小。根据调查参数和回归分析，可将服务区水域面积简化为航段上船舶流量和船舶平均吨位的连续函数，有助于方便合理地估算服务区所需的水域面积。 |
| 关键词: 内河航道 服务区 水域面积 仿真 AnyLogic |
| DOI：10.12170/201904004 |
| 分类号:U641.7 |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费项目（2242016K40109） |
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| Simulation analysis of water area in inland waterway service area |
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HAN Peng1, LIAO Peng2, LIU Zhongwe2, NI Bing1
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1.Anhui Transportation Research Institute, Hefei;2.Department of Port, Waterway and Coastal Engineering, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing
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| Abstract: |
| The inland waterway service area (IWSA) is an important auxiliary navigation facility along the inland waterway, which provides special services including berthing and replenishing of daily necessities for vessels and mariners during their voyages. The water area and maximum number of vessels that can be accommodated simultaneously are vital for the planning and designing of the IWSA, which is associated with the category of service, passing vessel flow rate, demand probability (driving-in rate) and service duration (turnover rate).Taking into account the randomness of the dynamic traffic system and the service duration, a simulation model using AnyLogic for estimating the water area of the IWSA based on the characteristics of the inland vessel traffic and service functions is established in this paper. On the basis of the field data concerning three service areas on three different inland waterways in the Yangtze River delta, the water area of the service areas is simulated and analyzed. The simulated results show that the number of berthing vessels and water areas of the service areas predicted by the simulation model are in good agreement with the actual situation,compared to the empirical formulas. The sensitivity analysis is adopted to identify the impacts of different distributions and expected values of the driving-in rate and turnover rate in the water area of the IWSA. According to the simulation and regression analysis, the water area can be simplified to a continuous function of the flow rate and averaged tonnage of vessels on the corresponding inland waterway, which can be used conveniently and reasonablely to estimate the water area needed for the inland waterway service area. |
| Key words: inland waterway service area water area simulation AnyLogic |
