引用本文:刘晶,鲍振鑫,刘翠善,王国庆,刘悦,王婕,管晓祥.近20年中国水资源及用水量变化规律与成因分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2019,(4):31-41
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近20年中国水资源及用水量变化规律与成因分析
刘晶1,2, 鲍振鑫1,2, 刘翠善1,2, 王国庆1,2, 刘悦2,3, 王婕1,2, 管晓祥2,3
1.南京水利科学研究院 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏南京;2.水利部应对气候变化研究中心，江苏南京;3.河海大学水文水资源学院，江苏南京
摘要:
水资源成为制约我国经济社会再发展的主要因素之一。水安全问题已上升到国家安全的战略高度，特别是近年来水资源短缺等问题加剧了水安全形势。选取我国10个水资源一级区1997—2016年水资源量及用水数据，借助Mann-Kendall法对其进行显著性检验，采用Kendall倾斜度表征各要素时间序列变化特征。从时间和空间尺度上揭示我国水资源及用水量变化特征及规律。分析表明：近20年我国水资源总量呈不明显减少趋势，其中北方水资源总量增加不明显，南方水资源量减少不明显。我国总用水量显著增加，除农业用水增加不明显外，其他各行业用水都呈显著增加趋势，尤其生活用水增加最明显。十大水资源一级区相邻区域水资源总量和总用水量的变化特征表现出相似性，不同地区变化特征表现出空间异质性。与国际水资源利用领先水平相比，我国农业节水潜力较大。
关键词:  水资源  用水量  演变规律  Mann-Kendall法
DOI：10.12170/201904005
分类号:TV213.9
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFA0605002，2016YFA0601501）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51779145,41330854，41830863）
Change law and cause analysis of water resources and water consumption in China in past 20 years
LIU Jing1,2, BAO Zhenxin1,2, LIU Cuishan1,2, WANG Guoqing1,2, LIU Yue2,3, WANG Jie1,2, GUAN Xiaoxiang2,3
1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;2.Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing;3.Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing
Abstract:
The water resources have become one of the main factors restricting the economic and social development of our country. The water safety has become one of the strategic issues of the national security, and especially in recent years, the shortage of the water resources and other related issues have aggravated the situation of the water safety. Based on the data of the water resources and water consumption from the ten first－class water resources regions in China from 1997 to 2016, the Mann－Kendall and Theil－Sen testing methods are used to test the significance of the data. The Kendall－gradient is used to characterize the time series variation characteristics of each factor. The characteristics and regularities of the water resources and water consumption change in China are revealed on the space-time scales. The analysis results indicate that the total amount of the water resources in China has not decreased significantly in the past 20 years. The total amount of the water resources in the northern China has not increased significantly, and the total amount of the water resources in the southern China has not decreased significantly. China’s total water consumption has increased significantly. Except the increase of agricultural water consumption is not obvious, the water consumption of other industries has shown a significant growth trend, especially the increase of the domestic water consumption is the most obvious. The change characteristics of the total amount of the water resources in the adjacent regions of the ten first-class water resources regions are similar, and the change characteristics in different regions show special heterogeneity. Compared with the leading level of the water resources utilization in the developed countries, China’s agricultural water-saving potential is great.
Key words:  water resources  water consumption  trend  Mann Kendall test method
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