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| 黄河流域典型流域水文气象变化与径流过程模拟 |
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管晓祥1,2, 金君良2,3,4, 黄爱明1, 詹慧婕1, 王国庆2,5, 刘翠善2,5
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1.河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏南京;2.水利部应对气候变化研究中心, 江苏南京;3.南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏南京;4.长江保护与绿色发展研究院， 江苏南京;5.南京水利科学研究院 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏南京
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| 摘要: |
| 典型流域水文气象分析及水文过程模拟是合理评价黄河流域水资源变化的重要基础。利用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法和均值差异T检验法分析了黄河流域7个典型流域的年降水量、年径流量和年均气温序列的变化特征，并采用VIC模型、新安江模型、WBM模型和GR4J模型模拟站点的径流过程。结果表明：各典型流域年均气温显著升高；年降水量变化趋势和突变情况均不明显；而年径流量呈显著下降趋势，且突变多发生在1980s。模型模拟结果表明4种水文模型在黄河流域应用效果较好。就Nash效率系数而言，VIC和新安江模型因为考虑产汇流过程较为详细，模拟径流过程与实测过程更贴近；就径流相对误差而言，WBM模型在水量模拟计算中表现较优，其结构简单，适用于流域水资源的模拟与评价。 |
| 关键词: 黄河流域 水文变化 VIC模型 新安江模型 WBM模型 GR4J模型 |
| DOI：10.12170/201905005 |
| 分类号:TV11 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC0404403）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51779144, 51679144, 51879164，41401024）；中央级公益性科研院所基本业务费资助项目（Y519010,Y519016) |
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| Typical hydro-meteorological changes and runoff process simulation in Yellow River basin |
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GUAN Xiaoxiang,JIN Junliang,HUANG Aiming,ZHAN Huijie,WANG Guoqing,LIU Cuishan
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1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing;2.Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing;3.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institate, Nanjing;4.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing
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| Abstract: |
| The simulation of hydro-meteorological analysis and hydrological process in the representative watersheds is of great importance for water resources assessment in the Yellow River basin. In this study, the Mann-Kendall and T-testing methods are used to analyze the variation characteristics of annual precipitation, runoff and temperature series in seven typical watersheds of the Yellow River basin. The VIC model, Xin’anjiang model, WBM model and GR4J model are applied to simulate the runoff processes. The simulated results show that the mean annual temperature of all the typical watersheds significantly increases, while the variation trends of the annual precipitation are not significant. As a result of environmental changes, the annual runoff series indicate a decreasing trend with abrupt changes mostly occurring in 1980s. It is found from the model simulation results that the four hydrological models mentioned above are well applied in the runoff simulation in the Yellow River Basin. As far as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is concerned, the simulated runoff process given by the VIC and Xin’anjiang models is closer to the measured runoff process because they consider the runoff generation and concentration process in detail. So far as relative errors of runoff are concerned, the WBM model, with a simple structure, performs better in water quantity simulation calculation, and is more suitable for the simulation and evaluation of water resources in the large-scale river basins. |
| Key words: Yellow River basin hydrological change VIC model Xinanjiang model WBM model GR4J model |
