| 摘要: |
| 水库灾害事件在演化过程中表现为相互转异、耦合、持续演进等链式结构特点，并呈现不断演化的态势，所造成的危害与影响远比单一灾害事件大且深远，而水库灾变链式效应及其链式风险是研究该态势演化的关键，故针对水库灾变链式效应开展水库灾变链风险评估模型研究具有重要意义。为此，构建了水库灾变链风险评估模型，结合复杂网络理论与技术，选取边的介数、平均路径长度及连通度对灾变链脆弱性进行表征，并应用于工程实例，对其中相关灾害事件所构成的灾变链进行分析，得到每条灾变链的链式风险度量值并进行排序，可为灾害预警及断链减灾工作提供技术支持。 |
| 关键词: 水库 水库灾害 链式效应 灾害系统 |
| DOI：10.12170/201902011 |
| 分类号:TV697 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0401603)；国家自然科学基金面上项目(51779154,51679151,41671504) |
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| Risk assessment on reservoir disaster chain |
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FANG Zhiyuan1,2, XIANG Yan1, ZHANG Kai1
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1.State Key Laboratory of HydrologyWater Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing;2.Hohai University, Nanjing
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| Abstract: |
| The reservoir disaster events often show the continuous evolution of the chain structure due to interactions among them, and the hazards and impacts caused by the reservoir disaster events are far greater and far more reaching than those caused by single ones. Meanwhile, the reservoir catastrophic chain effect and its chain risk are the key to study the situation evolution. Therefore, it is of great significance to make further researches on the chain effect and the chain risk assessment model for the reservoir catastrophe based on the chain effect of the reservoir catastrophe. In this paper, the risk-assessment model for the reservoir disaster chain is developed on edge number, average path length and connectivity, which are applied in describing network vulnerability. In engineering application, the analysis of the disaster chain network is carried out and the risk degree of each catastrophe chain is sorted, of which the analysis with evaluation results can provide technical support for reservoir disaster early warning and chain-breaking disaster reduction. |
| Key words: reservoir reservoir disaster chain effect disaster system |
