引用本文:王小杰,姜仁贵,解建仓,朱记伟,汪雅梅.渭河干流径流变化趋势及突变分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2019,(2):33-40
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渭河干流径流变化趋势及突变分析
王小杰1, 姜仁贵1, 解建仓1, 朱记伟1, 汪雅梅2
1.西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安;2.陕西省江河水库管理局,陕西西安
摘要:
流域水资源量的减少对区域水资源的利用、人类生存环境和经济社会发展等存在着重大影响,通过分析渭河干流径流量变化趋势和突变情况,为渭河流域水量调度和水资源管理提供科学支撑。采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验、累积距平、有序聚类、滑动t检验和R/S等方法分析渭河干流6个典型水文站1956—2015年径流量的历史演变规律、突变点和未来变化趋势。结果表明:渭河干流各站点的年和季节径流量均呈减少趋势。各站点的春、夏季节减少趋势的幅度大于秋、冬季节;从上游到下游,减少趋势的幅度越来越小。上游各站点呈现增加平稳减小的变化过程,且存在1970和1993年2个突变点,中游和下游各站点呈现增加波动平稳减小的变化过程,且存在1968和1993年2个突变点。渭河干流各站点年和季节径流量Hurst指数均大于0.5,即未来变化趋势与历史演变规律呈正相关性,表明渭河干流各站点径流量具有持续下降的趋势,相应部门应高度重视这一现象,制定合理的流域水资源管理对策。
关键词:  渭河干流  变化特征  非参数检验  R/S分析  径流演变
DOI:
分类号:TV121
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0401409); 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51509201,51679188,41471451); 陕西省自然科学基础研究基金资助项目(2018JM5031)
Analysis of variation trend and abrupt point of runoff in the mainstream of Weihe River Basin
WANG Xiaojie1, JIANG Rengui1, XIE Jiancang1, ZHU Jiwei1, WANG Yamei2
1.State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an;2.Rivers and Reservoirs Administration Bureau of Shaanxi Province, Xi’an
Abstract:
The reduction of water resources in the river basin has significant impact on the utilization of regional water resources, human living environment and economic and social development. The change characteristics and the abrupt point of runoff in the mainstream of the Weihe River Basin (WRB) were investigated to provide scientific support for water dispatching and water resources management in the WRB. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, cumulative anomaly, ordered clustering, moving t-test and R/S method were used to analyze the historical variation trend, abrupt point and future trend of runoff between 1956 and 2015 for six typical hydrological stations in the mainstream of WRB. Results indicate that: the annual and seasonal runoff at each station in the mainstream of WRB showed decreasing trends. The decreasing change magnitudes of runoff in the spring and summer seasons were greater than those in autumn and winter seasons at each station. From upstream to downstream, the magnitudes of decreasing trend got smaller and smaller. The upstream sites exhibited a process of increase-stationary-decrease, and there were 2 abrupt points in 1970 and 1993. The midstream and downstream stations exhibited a process of increase-stationary-decrease, and there were 2 abrupt points in 1968 and 1993. The annual and seasonal runoff Hurst index was more than 0.5 at each station in the mainstream of WRB, indicating that the future change characteristics of runoff were positively correlated with the historical change characteristics. The study shows that the runoff of each station in the mainstream of the WRB has a continuous decline trend. The administrative department of WRB should pay more attention to this issue and establish reasonable water resources management strategies for the WEB.
Key words:  mainstream of WRB  change characteristics  non parametric test  R/S analysis  runoff evolution
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