| 摘要: |
| 泥石流的发生受到多种自然条件的影响，泥石流易发性评价是一个复杂的不确定性问题。为了对中巴公路沿线泥石流进行易发性评价，应用区间数理论与集对分析相耦合的方法，建立了基于联系期望的泥石流易发性评价模型。该模型结合泥石流实地调查和遥感解译结果，选取了14个评价指标，采用区间数理论表示评价指标量值和评价等级分级标准，利用集对分析理论计算联系期望，然后结合评价指标权重得出指标关于各易发性等级的综合联系数，最后根据最大联系数原则判定易发性等级。通过中巴公路沿线泥石流易发性评价实例以及与其他评价方法对比表明：联系期望模型能有效预测泥石流易发性等级，简化区间数关系的分析过程，为解决类似不确定性问题提供了一种新方法。 |
| 关键词: 泥石流 易发性 区间数 集对分析 联系期望 中巴公路 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P642.23 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51378168);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2012HGZY0024) |
|
| An assessment model for debris flow liability to occurrence based on connectional expectation |
|
FANG Chengjie1, QIAN Deling1, XU Shibin1, YAO Lanfei1, LIU Jie1,2
|
|
1.School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei;2.Xinjiang Transportation Planning, Surveying and Design Institute, Urumqi
|
| Abstract: |
| The risk assessment of the debris flow liability to occurrence is a complex and uncertain problem as it is influenced by some natural conditions. In order to evaluate the liability to occurrence of the debris flow on Karakoram highway, the coupling of the interval number theory and a set pair analysis method were comprehensively applied to establishing the assessment model for the debris flow liability to occurrence based on the connectional expectation. Based on in situ investigations and the results of the remote sensing image interpretation, 14 evaluation indexes were selected in this model. Then the values of evaluation indexes and the classification standards of each evaluation degree were also determined by the interval number theory. The connectional expectation was calculated by a set pair analysis and then combined with the weight coefficients of the evaluation indexes, the comprehensive connectional numbers of each evaluation index to the degree of debris flow liability to occurrence were introduced. Finally, the degree of the debris flow liability to occurrence was determined according to the principle of the maximum connectional number. Compared with other methods, the calculated results of an experimental example of the debris flow liability to occurrence of Karakoram highway indicate that the model can efficiently predict the debris flow liability to occurrence and simplify the analytical process of the interval number relationships, which has given a new approach to solving these similar uncertain problems in the future. |
| Key words: debris flow liability to occurrence the interval number set pair analysis connectional expectation Karakoram highway |
