南水北调东线工程运行风险分析

耿雷华; 刘恒; 姜蓓蕾; 李爱花; 宋轩

引用本文:	耿雷华,刘恒,姜蓓蕾,李爱花,宋轩.南水北调东线工程运行风险分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2010,(1):

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南水北调东线工程运行风险分析
耿雷华¹,刘恒²,姜蓓蕾¹,李爱花¹,宋轩¹
1. 南京水利科学研究院,江苏,南京,210029;水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏,南京,210029 2. 南京水利科学研究院,江苏,南京,210029

摘要:

将南水北调东线工程分解为提水、输水和蓄水三大系统,结合层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价法(FCT)建立了各系统工程运行风险因子识别体系和评价结构模型.通过对东线一期工程运行风险的定量计算,实现了工程各系统运行风险等级划分,进而根据风险分析结果给出相应的降低风险的控制措施和对策,为南水北调东线一期工程安全运行管理提供有益参考.

关键词: 南水北调工程运行东线风险分析

DOI：

分类号:TV68

基金项目:"十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目

Operating risk analysis on the east route of South-North Water Diversion Project

GENG Lei-hua¹,LIU Heng²,JIANG Bei-lei¹,LI Ai-hua¹,SONG Xuan¹

GENG Lei-hua1,2,LIU Heng1,JIANG Bei-lei1,LI Ai-hua1,SONG Xuan1,2(1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China,2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources , Hydraulic Engineering,China)

Abstract:

This paper divides the east route of the South-North Water Diversion Project into three systems: the water pumping system,the water conveyance system and the water storage system.For each system,the operating risk identification and evaluation models are established by means of analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and fuzzy consistency theorem(FCT) methodologies.Based on the qualitative and quantitative assessment results of the project,the operating risk grades are ranked for each system,and appropriate measure...

Key words: South-North Water Diversion Project operating risk east route risk analysis