| 摘要: |
| 随着全球气候变暖，海水入侵导致的咸潮上溯已成为制约滨海城市供水安全的主要水文因素。本文以珠江三角洲磨刀门水道为研究区域，采用二维Archimedean Copula函数，对西江马口水文站流量表征的干旱烈度与磨刀门水道主要测咸站点的月最大咸度进行风险遭遇分析。通过Kendall秩相关系数评估了两者的相关性，基于极大似然法估计了不同类型Archimedean Copula函数参数，并根据均方根误差（RMSE）和AIC信息准则法优选出各测咸站点的最优Copula函数类型。结果表明，（1）马口水文站干旱烈度与磨刀门水道各测咸站点月最大咸度相关系数均在0.5以上，稔益水厂最小为0.5035，联石湾水闸最大为0.7155，说明两者呈现较强的正相关性；（2）不同测咸站点最优Archimedean Copula函数类型存在一定差异，联合概率密度函数均呈现双峰特性，不同测咸站点峰值不同；（3）联合等值线图主要分布于右上角区域，揭示联合概率随干旱烈度与最大咸度变量值的增大而增大，且两变量同时大于某一特定值的概率较大。研究结果可为磨刀门水道或类似河口地区滨海城市供水安全调控提供理论参考。 |
| 关键词: 磨刀门水道 咸潮 干旱 二维Archimedean Copula函数 风险遭遇 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV124?? ???? |
| 基金项目:国家优秀青年科学(51822908)；广东省基础与应用基础研究(2023B1515040028) |
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| Analysis of Saltwater Intrusion and Drought Risk Co-occurrence in the Modaomen Waterway of the Pearl River Delta |
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WEI Shuai1,2, LIN Kairong1,3,4
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1.School of Civil Engineering，Sun Yat-Sen University;2.Water Supply Affairs Center of Zhongshan City;3.Guangdong Key Laboratory of Marine Civil Engineering;4.Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Water Security Regulation and Control for Southern China
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| Abstract: |
| With global climate warming, saltwater intrusion caused by saline tide upstream has become a primary hydrological factor threatening water supply security in coastal cities. This study focuses on the Modaomen waterway in the Pearl River Delta. A two-dimensional Archimedean Copula function was employed to analyze the risk co-occurrence between drought severity characterized by streamflow data from the Makou Hydrological Station on the Xijiang River and monthly maximum salinity levels at key salinity monitoring stations in the Modaomen waterway. The Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient was applied to evaluate their interdependence. Parameters of different Archimedean Copula types were estimated using the maximum likelihood method, with optimal Copula models selected for each station based on the root mean square error (RMSE) and Akaike Information Criterion(AIC).
The results indicate that: (1) The correlation coefficients between the drought intensity at Makou Hydrological Station and the monthly maximum salinity levels at various salinity monitoring sites in the Modaomen Waterway all exceed 0.5, with the smallest coefficient at Renyi Water Plant being 0.5035 and the largest at Lianshiwan Sluice reaching 0.7155, indicating a strong positive correlation; (2) The optimal Archimedean Copula function type varied slightly across the different salinity monitoring sites, and all joint probability density functions exhibited bimodal characteristics, though the peak values differed between sites; (3) The joint contour plots were primarily concentrated in the upper-right region, revealing that the joint probability increases with rising values of both drought intensity and maximum salinity, and that the probability of both variables simultaneously exceeding specific threshold values is relatively high. These findings provide a theoretical basis for regulating water supply security in coastal cities along the Modaomen Waterway or similar estuary areas. |
| Key words: Madaomen Waterway, Saltwater Intrusion, Drought, Two-dimensional Archimedean Copula Function, Risk Occurrence |
