| 摘要: |
| 研究气候变化下长江中下游干流洪水变化规律对于该区域防洪具有重要意义。本研究基于全球气候模式(GCMs)和分布式时变增益水文模型(DTVGM),预估了未来气候变化条件下长江中下游干流典型站点洪水响应特征。结果表明,长江中下游干流径流量在四种共享社会经济路径(SSP)情景下均呈现上升趋势,尤其在SSP5-8.5高排放情景下,季节性水文变动更为剧烈且持续。不同气候情景和模式下,大通、汉口、螺山、宜昌四个站点的年最大洪峰流量和最大3日洪量均有增长趋势。未来小洪水、中洪水、大洪水、特大洪水发生比例依次减小。相较SSP3-7.0情景和SSP5-8.5情景,SSP1-2.6情景和SSP2-4.5情景,发生小洪水的比例大多更高,而发生大洪水和特大洪水的比例大多要低。在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,大洪水以上量级的洪水发生概率增大,呈现出更加集中且频繁的特点,这两种情景下大洪水的发生趋于极端化。研究结果可为长江中下游干流防洪规划提供科学依据,并强调了在不同排放情景下,需要采取相应的适应性策略以应对未来气候变化带来的挑战。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 洪水演变 DTVGM模型 CMIP6 长江中下游干流 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV121 |
| 基金项目:中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目“‘荆楚安澜’现代水网发展战略咨询”(2023-DFZD-44) |
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| Responses of flood characteristics in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River under climate change |
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WU Yong-yan1, ZENG Si-dong2, JI Yong-yue2, LIU Qiang1, MAO Wen-yao1, XIA Jun3
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1.Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research Corporation,Wuhan;2.Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chongqing;3.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan
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| Abstract: |
| It is of great significance to study the flood characteristics for flood control in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River under climate change. Based on Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (DTVGM), the impact of future climate change on the characteristics of runoff and floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin are projected. The results indicated that runoff exhibited an increasing trend across all four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, with the most intense and persistent seasonal hydrological variations occurring under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. Under different climate models and scenarios, the annual maximum peak flow and the maximum three-day flood volume at the Datong, Hankou, Luoshan, and Yichang stations all showed an upward trend. The proportion of future floods was observed to decrease in order from small, medium, large to catastrophic floods. Compared with the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the frequency of small floods was higher, while the frequency of large and catastrophic floods was lower under the lower emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. Under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the likelihood of floods exceeding the large flood threshold increased indicating a trend toward more frequent and concentrated extreme flooding events. |
| Key words: Climate change Flood change DTVGM model CMIP6 Middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River |
