| 摘要: |
| 受气候变化和人类活动影响，河流生态问题越发突出，然而河流生态流量的基础理论和计算方法仍不具有普适性。基于1960—2020年实测数据，引入模糊数的概念，构建梯形与三角模糊数生态流量计算模型，对比另外6种生态流量计算方法，分析了黄河内蒙古段生态流量。结果表明：梯形模糊数生态需水模型更加适用于石嘴山水文站河道断面，适宜生态流量区间为701~1190 m3/s；三角模糊数计算所得石嘴山、巴彦高勒、三湖河口和头道拐水文站态流量最可能值分别为766 m3/s、668 m3/s、522 m3/s、559 m3/s；在满足保障率方面，不同水文站间的年内生态保障率具有相似的变化趋势，逐月频率计算法与改进7Q10法的保障率基本维持在90%以上；基于Tennant生态环境状况评价等级标准给出了各站年内推荐生态流量，对维系黄河流域水文过程完整及推动河流生态环境复苏提供重要的科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 模糊数 生态流量 不确定性河道 水文学法 黄河内蒙古段 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV213 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(52169016)(51969021)；内蒙古自治区自然科学(2021MS05042)； |
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| Research on uncertain river ecological flow based on fuzzy numbers |
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guweipeng1, liuxiaomin2, liutingxi2, wangwenjuan3
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1.College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University;2.College of Water Conservancy, Civil Engineering and Architecture, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University;3.Collaborative Innovation Center for Comprehensive Management of Water Resources and Water Environment in the Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River Basin
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| Abstract: |
| Affected by climate change and human activities, the ecological problems of rivers have become more and more prominent, however, the basic theories and calculation methods of river ecological flow are still not universal. Based on the measured data from 1960 to 2020, the concept of fuzzy number is introduced, and the trapezoidal and triangular fuzzy number ecological flow calculation models are constructed to analyze the ecological flow of the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River in comparison with six other ecological flow calculation methods. The results show that: the trapezoidal fuzzy number ecological water demand model is more applicable to the river cross section of Shizuishan hydrological station, and the suitable ecological flow interval is 701~1190 m3/s; the most probable values of the ecological flow obtained from the triangular fuzzy number calculations for Shizuishan, Bayan Gao'le, the mouth of Sanhu River, and the Toudaoqian hydrological station are 766 m3/s, 668 m3/s, 522 m3/s, and 559 m3/s, respectively; and the most probable values of the ecological flow obtained from different hydrological stations are 766 m3/s, 668 m3/s, 522 m3/s, and 559 m3/s. In terms of the satisfaction guarantee rate, the annual ecological guarantee rate between different hydrological stations has a similar trend, and the guarantee rate of the month-by-month frequency calculation method and the improved 7Q10 method basically maintains above 90%; based on the Tennant ecological environment condition evaluation grade standard, the recommended ecological flow rate of each station is given, which provides an important scientific basis for maintaining the integrity of hydrological processes in the Yellow River Basin and promoting the recovery of the river ecosystems. |
| Key words: fuzzy number ecological flow uncertain river channels hydrology method Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River |
