| 摘要: |
| 渭河流域不仅是中国农耕文化的重要发祥地,同时也构成我国主要粮食生产安全的重要屏障之一,研究流域的未来气候状况将为最终实现“黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展”的总体目标提供坚实的保障。本文利用渭河流域的27个气象站资料(1979年至2015年)结合NCEP的再分析数据,构建了一个SDSM的降尺度模型,应用于NorESM2-MM、CanESM5、MPI-ESM1-2-HR等CMIP6多模式集合的3种不同情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)来预测该流域的未来气温和降水变化。模型结果表明,SDSM模型在对渭河流域气温的模拟上表现出色,但在降水上的模拟效果稍显不足；渭河流域的未来气温将持续升高,空间分布呈由南向北递减的趋势；渭河流域未来的降水量增多,空间分布呈现出东南高西北低的趋势；渭河流域的气温升高与降水量增多的趋势幅度均为:SSP5-5.8 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP1-2.6。 |
| 关键词: 渭河流域 SDSM模型 CMIP6多模式集合 气温 降水 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P456.7 ?? |
| 基金项目:自然资源部环鄱阳湖区域矿山环境监测与治理重点实验室开放基金资助(MEMI-2021-2022-08)；湖南科技大学测绘遥感信息工程湖南省重点实验室开放基金资助(E22133、E22205) |
|
| Future Climate Projections for the Weihe River Basin Based on SDSM and CMIP6 Models |
|
zhanyangying, tangjun, gaoxianjun, yangyuanwei, fanguiying, dengliting
|
|
Yangtze University
|
| Abstract: |
| The Weihe River Basin is not only an important birthplace of Chinese farming culture, but also constitutes one of the major barriers to the security of China"s major food production, and the study of the future climate conditions of the basin will provide a solid guarantee for the ultimate realization of the overall goal of "ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin". In this paper, a downscaling model of SDSM was constructed by using the data from 27 meteorological stations in the Weihe River Basin (1979-2015) and the reanalysis data from NCEP, and applied to three different scenarios of CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, such as NorESM2-MM, CanESM5, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. and SSP5-8.5) to predict future temperature and precipitation changes in the basin. The model results show that the SDSM model performs well in simulating the temperature of the Weihe River Basin, but is slightly less effective in simulating the precipitation; the future temperature of the Weihe River Basin will continue to increase, and the spatial distribution shows a decreasing trend from the south to the north; the future precipitation of the Weihe River Basin will increase, and the spatial distribution shows a trend of the south-east being high and the north-west being low; and the magnitude of the trends of the increasing temperature and precipitation in the Weihe River Basin are both: SSP5-5.8 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP1-2.6. |
| Key words: Weihe River Basin SDSM model CMIP6 multi-model ensemble temperature precipitation |
