| 摘要: |
| 珠江河口受强台风影响频次较高，由于地处粤港澳大湾区核心区域，经济发达，风暴潮灾害通常造成严重损失。本文基于珠江河口典型水文站澳门内港站近50年长序列潮位资料分析，研究表明澳门内港站45%的年极值潮位是受台风影响导致，实测潮位极值发生在天文高潮位前后1h内的概率约为82%，而增水极值与天文潮极值相位呈现了较为明显的非均匀双峰分布，增水峰值发生在天文潮高潮位的频率仅5%。台风路径及登陆点对风暴潮增水的数值、持续时间等特征要素均有较大的影响。西北向和西进型路径台风造成风暴潮增水较大且占比多，造成超30cm增水的次数约占台风影响总次数的90%。当内港站位于台风的左半圆时增水量值相对较小；当内港站位于台风右半圆，增水幅度相对更大，同时存在登陆点越靠西、风暴潮增水持续时间更长、增水幅度越小的趋势。同时建立了风暴潮增水与台风强度、路径、登陆点的极值增水预报公式，拟合值与实测值的拟合度高，可为区域风暴潮预报及灾害防控提供科学参考。 |
| 关键词: 风暴潮增水 珠江河口 台风路径 风暴潮预报 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P731.3 |
| 基金项目:广东省省级科技计划项目(2022A0505020016) |
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| Characteristics and Empirical Forecasting of Storm Surge in the Pearl River Estuary |
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Xu Jiejing1,2,3,2,4,5, Ye Ronghui4, Liu Pei1,2,3,2,4,5, Huang Daizhong3
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1.Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuarine Dynamics and Associated Process Regulation;2.China;3.Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute,Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute,Ministry of Water Resources;4.Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources;5.Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Ministry of Water Resources
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| Abstract: |
| The Pearl River Estuary is frequently affected by strong typhoons, and due to its location in the core area of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, which is economically developed, storm surge disasters often result in serious losses. Based on the analysis of the long-term tide level data from the Macao Inner Harbour Station, a typical hydrological station in the Pearl River Estuary, over the past 50 years, this study shows that 45% of the annual extreme tide levels in the Inner Harbour Station are caused by typhoon impacts. The probability of extreme tide levels occurring within 1 hour before and after the astronomical high tide is approximately 82%. Furthermore, the extreme surge levels exhibit a distinct non-uniform bimodal distribution in relation to the phase of the astronomical tide extremes, with the peak surge occurring only 5% of the time at the astronomical high tide. The typhoon track and landing point have significant influences on the characteristics of storm surge, such as its magnitude and duration. Typhoons moving in a northwest direction and those with a westward trajectory result in larger and more frequent storm surge events in the Pearl River Estuary, with these events accounting for approximately 90% of the total number of typhoon-induced surges exceeding 30cm. When the Inner Harbour Station located in the left semicircle of a typhoon resulting in relatively smaller values, and when the Inner Harbour Station situated in the right semicircle of a typhoon, the surge amplitude is relatively larger, and there is a tendency for the surge duration to be longer and the surge amplitude to be smaller as the landing point moves further westward. Furthermore, a formula for extreme surge prediction considering typhoon intensity, track, and landing point has been established. The fitting degree between the formula and the observed values is high, providing scientific reference for regional storm surge prediction and disaster prevention and control. |
| Key words: storm surge, Pearl River Estuary, typhoon path, storm surge prediction |
