| 摘要: |
| 随着经济社会快速发展，海水入侵是沿海地区常发的生态环境问题。为了科学防治海水入侵保护生态环境，本文以山东省龙口市为例，构建了SEAWAT海水入侵数值模型，通过情景分析法定量评估了海水入侵影响因子，针对性提出了地下水开发利用对策，并预测了未来海水入侵发展趋势。结果表明，构建的数值模型可以准确模拟地下水位时空变化，很好反映海水入侵发展变化。模型检验期内地下水位模拟值与观测值的均方根误差（RMSE）、绝对平均误差（MAE）和平均相对误差（MRE）分别为0.903m、0.811m和8.78%，氯离子浓度模拟值与观测值的RMSE、MAE和MRE分别为51.61mg/L、41.52 mg/L和9.61%。地下水开采和降水是龙口市海水入侵变化的主要影响因素，其中北马镇等北部沿海地区是地下水管控的重点区域。在现状地下水开采条件下，未来龙口市海水入侵面积总体上呈现减小趋势，到2050年末预计为128.67km2。 |
| 关键词: 海水入侵,数值模拟,影响因素,变化环境,龙口市 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3204601),广东省水利科技创新项目(2021-07),南京水利科学研究院基本科研业务费青年(Y522016) |
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| The numerical simulation and influencing factors analysis of regional seawater intrusion under changing environment |
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LI Dai-yuan1, Shi Rrui1, WU Yong-xiang1, WANG Gao-xu1, Zhang Xuan1, Wan Yong-jing2
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1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydrologic Engineering,Nanjing Hydrologic Research Institute;2.Anhui University of Technology
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| Abstract: |
| With the rapid development of economy and society，seawater intrusion (SI) is a general issue in coastal areas for its profound impacts on both the natural environment and human society. In order to scientifically prevent and control seawater intrusion and protect the ecological environment, the variable-density SI numerical model based on SEAWAT was developed in Longkou City. Through scenario analysis, the SI impact factors were quantitatively assessed. Then, the groundwater utilization measures were proposed for SI. Finally, the trend of SI from 2018 to 2050 was predicted. The results show that the numerical model can accurately simulate the temporal and spatial changes of groundwater level and reflect the SI development. During the testing period, the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean relative error (MRE) of groundwater level are 0.903m, 0.811m, and 8.78%, respectively. RMSE, MAE, and MRE of Chloride concentration in monitoring well are 51.61mg/L, 42.52mg/L, and 9.61%. In addition, the quantitative assessment results indicate that groundwater pumping and precipitation are major factors influencing SI changes. Especially, the northern coastal areas such as Beima Town are the key areas for groundwater management. The prediction results show that SI will have a decreasing trend. SI area will be about 128.67 km2 by the end of 2050. |
| Key words: Seawater intrusion,Numerical simulation, Impact factor, Changing environment,Longkou Ctiy |
