| 摘要: |
| 为有效评估旱灾风险,将五元联系数中的不确定性差异度项分解到到偏同差异度项和偏反差异度项上,得到演化四元减法集对势,并对其中的差异度系数进行三角模糊数随机模拟,建立基于演化四元减法集对势模糊数随机模拟的旱灾风险评估模型,并应用于淮南市旱灾风险评估。结果表明：淮南市2008-2017年旱灾风险等级整体处于2~3级,整体处于弱中险状态,并且呈现等级逐渐下降的趋势；在旱灾风险评估子系统中,危险性子系统、暴露性子系统和灾损敏感性子系统风险等级都在降低,有向好的发展趋势,而抗旱能力子系统等级在逐渐偏高。基于演化四元减法集对势模糊数随机模拟的旱灾风险评估方法包含了五元减法集对势的计算结果,且其计算结果是一个等级置信区间,可综合反映旱灾风险变化的多因素影响、不确定性等特点。 |
| 关键词: 旱灾风险 五元联系数 演化四元减法集对势 三角模糊数 评估模型 淮南市 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| Drought Risk Assessment Based on the Random Simulation Method of Evolutionary Quaternion Subtraction Set Pair Potential Fuzzy Numbers |
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Qin Guanghu1, ZHOU Liangguang2, Zhao Qiya3
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1.合肥工业大学;2.School of Civil Engineering and Water Conservancy Engineering,Hefei University of Technology;3.Hefei University of Technology
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| Abstract: |
| In order to effectively assess drought risks, decompose the uncertainty variance term in the five-variable connection number to the partial difference term and the partial inverse difference term,obtain the evolutionary quaternion subtraction set pair potential, and the triangular fuzzy number stochastic simulation of the difference coefficient is carried out, a drought risk assessment model based on the random simulation metod of evolutionary quaternaion subtraction set pair potential was established, and applied to drought risk assessment in Huainan City. The application results show that: From 2008 to 2017, the drought risk level of Huainan City was generally at level 2~3, and the overall drought risk was in a weak and medium risk state. And it shows a trend of gradual decline in rank. In the drought risk assessment subsystem, the risk level of the hazard subsystem, the exposure subsystem, and the hazard sensitivity subsystem are all reduced,there is a positive development trend, but the level of drought resistance subsystem is gradually increasing. The drought risk assessment method based on the random simulation of the triangular fuzzy number of the evolutionary quaternion subtraction set potential includes the calculation results of five-variable subtraction set pair potential, moreover, the calculation result is a hierarchical confidence interval, which can comprehensively reflect the multi-factor impact and uncertainty of drought risk change. |
| Key words: drought risk five-variable connection number evolutionary quaternion subtraction set pair potential triangular fuzzy numbers evaluate model Huainan City |
