| 摘要: |
| 在全球气候变化不断加剧的背景下，降水、气温、蒸发等气象要素的变化对流域水文和水力发电产生重要影响；中国作为水能资源丰富的国家，水力发电在能源结构中具有重要地位，研究气候变化对入库径流和水力发电的影响，对于实现水资源和水电能源的可持续开发利用具有重要意义。本研究以位于北江支流的官溪小水电站为研究对象，基于19个CMIP6（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6）全球气候模式数据，分析了未来气候变化对官溪水电站入库径流和发电量的影响。结果表明，(1)在SSP2-4.5情景下，官溪小水电站以上流域的气温、降水均呈现上升趋势；（2）尽管不同GCMs模式预估结果存在一定差异，就19个模式集合平均来看，官溪小水电站未来入库径流和水力发电量将有所增加；（3）与基准期（1981-2020）年相比，2031-2060年和2061-2090年官溪水电站入库流量将增加8.56%[-28.1%, 53.7%]和11.01%[-24.9%,56.4%],发电量将可能增加5.87%[-29.3%, 50.1%]和 8.03%[-27.3%, 52.4%]。未来径流和发电潜能的增加可为官溪水电站的扩容改造提供一定的科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 RCCC-WBM模型 入库径流 水力发电 |
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| Impacts of climate change on inflow and hydropower generation of typical small hydropower stations in southern China |
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wangyueyang1, zhangjianyun1, ningzhongrui1, jiayufan1, guoxinyi2, zhangrui3, baozhenxin1
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1.Hohai University;2.National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention;3.College of Geography and Tourism Science
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| Abstract: |
| In the context of global warming, changes in precipitation, temperature and potential evaporation have significant impact on hydrological regime and hydropower generation. China is abundance in hydropower potential. Hydropower attaches a great importance in China’s energy structure. It is of great significance to study the influence of climate change on reservoir inflow and hydropower generation for the sustainable development and utilization of water and hydropower resources. In this study, taking the Guanxi Hydropower Station as a case, impacts of climate change on reservoir inflow and hydropower yield were investigated by using projection of 19 GCMs (General Circulation Models) in CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). Results indicated that (1) in the next decades, temperature, precipitation, and potential evaporation will likely increase under scenario of SSP2-4.5. (2) Different GCMs are associated with different projections, inflow runoff and hydropower generation will likely increase based on multiple mean of 19 GCMs projections. (3) Relative to baseline of 1981-2020, inflow runoff of Guanxia hydropower station will increase by 8.56%[-28.1%, 53.7%] in the near future period of 2031-2060 and11.01% [24.9%, 56.4%] in the far future period of 2061-2090; as a result of change in inflow runoff, hydropower generation will increase by 5.87%[-29.3%, 50.1%]和 8.03%[-27.3%, 52.4%] accordingly. The projected increases in inflow runoff and hydropower generation could provide scientific support of the small hydropower station extension construction. |
| Key words: Climate change RCCC-WBM model Inflow runoff Hydroelectric power generation |
