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基于CMIP6模式对黄河流域水源涵养区的降水和气温模拟能力评估
吴金雨1, 鞠琴1, 刘小妮1, 连子旭1, 张译尹1, 段远强1, 王国庆2, 魏海1
1.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;2.南京水利科学研究院
摘要:
黄河流域水源涵养区是国家重要的生态屏障,评估全球气候模式对黄河流域水源涵养区降水和气温的模拟能力至关重要。本文基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的20个全球气候模式,采用相对误差、相关系数、确定性系数和泰勒图等评估指标,对黄河流域水源涵养区1985—2014年降水和气温的模拟能力进行综合评估,并对优选出的模式进行空间分析。结果表明:绝大多数气候模式对气温的模拟效果优于降水,气温的相关系数高达0.95以上;而对降水的模拟普遍存在高估现象,确定性系数偏低。在对黄河流域水源涵养区分区研究中发现,大部分模式对三个区域的模拟精度都有待进一步提高,不同气候模式的模拟能力在不同分区上的表现能力存在一定的差异性,总体上,20个模式在黄河源区模拟的降水和气温效果最好,唐乃亥-兰州以上流域次之,渭河-伊洛河流域最差。其中,EC-Earth3-Veg模式在三个区域的模拟能力相对最优,能基本再现降水和气温的年变化特征。该模式模拟值与多年平均观测值在空间分布上存在一定的差异性。降水在黄河源区偏差最大,唐乃亥-兰州以上流域次之,渭河-伊洛河流域最好。气温在唐乃亥-兰州以上流域偏差最大,渭河-伊洛河流域次之,黄河源区最好。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源管理及气候变化的研究提供参考。
关键词:  黄河流域水源涵养区  CMIP6气候模式评估  降水  气温  空间分布
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFC3201104),国家自然科学(批准号:52179013),“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金资助(2022490611)
Assessment of Precipitation and Temperature in the Yellow River Basin water conservation region based on CMIP6 models
WU Jinyu1, JU Qin1, LIU Xiaoni1, LIAN Zixu1, ZHANG Yiyin1, DUAN Yuanqiang1, WANG Guoqing2, WEI Hai1
1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University;2.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing,Jiangsu, China
Abstract:
It is crucial to assess the ability of global climate models to simulate precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River Basin water conservation region, which is an important national ecological barrier. Based on the 20 global climate models of the sixth phase of the International Coupled Model Comparison Program (CMIP6), this paper uses relative error, correlation coefficient, deterministic coefficient, and Taylor diagram to comprehensively evaluate the simulation ability of precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River Basin water conservation region from 1985 to 2014, and conducts spatial analysis on the selected models. The results show that most of the climate models simulate temperature better than precipitation, and the correlation coefficient of temperature is above 0.95; while the simulation of precipitation is generally overestimated and the deterministic coefficient is low. In the study of the Yellow River Basin water conservation region, it was found that the simulation accuracy of most models for all three areas needs to be further improved, and there is some variability in the simulation ability of different climate models for different subareas. In general, 20 models simulated the best precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River source area, followed by the Tangnaihai-Lanzhou basin, and the worst in the Weihe-Ilohe basin. Among them, the EC-Earth3-Veg model has the relatively best simulation ability in the three regions and can basically reproduce the annual variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature. There is some variability in the spatial distribution of the simulated values and the multi-year average observed values. Precipitation deviates the most in the Yellow River source area, followed by the Tangnaihai-Lanzhou basin, and the best in the Weihe-Ilohe basin. The temperature deviation is the highest in the Tangnahai-Lanzhou basin, the second highest in the Weihe-Ilohe basin, and the best in the Yellow River source area. The results of the study can provide a reference for the study of water resources management and climate change in the Yellow River basin.
Key words:  The Yellow River Basin water conservation region  CMIP6 climate model assessment  Precipitation  Temperature  spatial distribution
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