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沁河2021年“7.11”暴雨洪水重现期分析
金双彦, 霍文博, 郭邵萌
黄河水利委员会水文局
摘要:
根据沁河流域历年各时段最大降雨量表1、表2和“7.11”洪水报汛雨量资料,采用P-III型分布,建立了润城、五龙口、山路平、武陟等14个长系列水文站和雨量站的年最大24h、年最大6h和年最大1h的3个代表性时段的降雨量频率曲线,计算了“7.11”洪水最大24h大于100mm、最大6h大于100mm、最大1h大于50mm的降雨量重现期;根据历史调查洪水、历年最大洪峰流量,建立了五龙口、山路平和武陟水文站的P-III型频率曲线,计算了“7.11”洪水洪峰流量的重现期。结果表明:最大24h降雨量排名第一的窑头站351mm重现期约为3 000年一遇,最大6h降雨量排名第一的窑头站328.5mm重现期约为万年一遇,最大1h排名前三的窑头、李寨和河西站降雨量重现期为200~300年一遇,五龙口、山路平和武陟站洪峰流量重现期分别相当于30年一遇、10~15年一遇和10年一遇。分析结果可为沁河流域和黄河下游防洪调度提供技术支撑。
关键词:  重现期  P-III型频率曲线  “7.11”暴雨洪水  沁河
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题
Analysis on the Return Period of “7.11” Rainstorm in 2021 in the Qinhe River Basin
JIN Shuang-yan, HUO Wen-bo, GUO Shao-meng
Hydrology Bureau of Yellow River Conservancy Commission
Abstract:
According to the Table 1 and Table 2 of Maximum Rainfall Data of Different Period over the history years and the "7.11" rainfall in 2021 in the Qinhe River basin, the rainfall frequency curve of three representative periods of fourteen long series stations are established by using P-III distribution, and the rainfall return period of "7.11" with maximum 24 h greater than 100 mm, maximum 6 h greater than 100 mm and maximum 1 h greater than 50 mm are calculated. According to the historical survey flood and the maximum peak discharge over the years, the frequency curves are established, and the return period of peak discharge of Wulongkou, Shanluping and Wuzhi hydrology station are calculated. The results show that: (1) The return period of the largest 24h rainfall 351mm in Yaotou station is about 3000 years, of the largest 6 h rainfall 328.5 mm in Yaotou station is about 10 000 years, of the largest 1 h rainfall rank the former three is 200~300 years. (2) The return periods of flood peak discharge of Wulongkou, Shanluping and Wuzhi station are equivalent to 30 years, 10~15 years and 10 years respectively. The results can provide technical support for flood control operation in the Qinhe River Basin and the lower Yellow River.
Key words:  return period  P-III distribution  7.11 rainstorm and flood  Qinhe River basin
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