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水库塌岸短期预测中时空界限决策研究
陈艳国, 高平, 姜耀飞
黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司
摘要:
水库塌岸是具有一定时间、空间界限属性的地质环境灾害现象。时间界限指时间跨度,空间界限指不同水库区段,不同时空界限的塌岸具有差异化特征。目前业内常用的水库塌岸短期预测时长跨度为2~10 y,但对工程应用来说,缺乏足够的决策依据,给实际应用带来难题。本文从水库蓄水过程的角度,明确了短期塌岸预测时长选择的主要依据,从三峡、小浪底等大型水库工程来看,短期时长界限是可以通过量化关键因子来科学界定的。本文将时空界限决策理论应用于甘肃马莲河水库工程短期塌岸预测中,详细阐述时空界限的决策过程,并从工程地质角度对短期塌岸预测成果的应用给出建议。该方案在理论上、实用性上具有一定的应用和推广价值。
关键词:  水库塌岸  短期预测  时空界限  蓄水过程
DOI:
分类号:TV221.2
基金项目:
RESEARCH ON TIME-SPACE BOUNDARY DECISION-MAKING IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF RESERVOIR BANK COLLAPSE
CHEN Yanguo, GAO Ping, JIANG Yaofei
Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co,Ltd
Abstract:
Reservoir collapse is a geological environmental disaster phenomenon with certain time and space boundary attributes. The time boundary refers to the time span, and the space boundary refers to different reservoir sections, and bank collapses with different time and space boundary have different characteristics. At present, the short-term prediction time span commonly used in reservoir bank collapse is 2 to 10 years, but for engineering applications, there is no sufficient basis for decision-making, which brings difficulties to practical applications. From the perspective of the reservoir water storage process, this paper clarifies the main basis for the time span selection of the short-term bank collapse prediction. From the perspective of large-scale reservoir projects such as the Three Gorges and Xiaolangdi, the short-term time boundary can be scientifically defined by quantifying key factors. This paper applies the space-time decision-making theory to the short-term bank collapse prediction of Malian River Reservoir in Gansu, elaborates the decision-making process, and it will make important suggestions for the application of short-term bank collapse prediction results from the perspective of engineering geology. The scheme has certain application and promotion value in theory and practicability.
Key words:  reservoir collapse  short-term prediction  space-time boundary  water storage process
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