| 摘要: |
| 研究海河流域旱涝急转的发生规律，可为海河流域防汛抗旱提供科学参考依据。本文利用海河流域159个气象站1961-2019年逐日降水资料，计算出标准化前期降水指数（SAPI），基于该指数，根据旱涝等级标准和旱涝急转条件筛选出1961年以来的旱涝急转事件，分析海河流域旱涝急转频次和强度特征。结果表明：海河流域年平均旱涝急转频次为33次，基本上逐年代增加，最近10年平均值达37次。旱涝急转强度也呈上升趋势，2000年后增加至平均值以上，尤其是近10年呈现出跳跃式的增加，达到最大值。旱涝急转多发生在5、6月及9月中旬，盛夏期间发生的次数较少。旱涝急转强度呈单峰型分布，最大值出现在6月中旬到7月上旬，该时段对应的旱涝急转频次也较多，增加了洪涝灾害的风险。从空间分布来看，旱涝急转频次和强度在滦河河系南部地区、北三河系西部及徒骇马颊河中部等地区均为大值区，即这些地区旱涝急转出现频次高、强度大，因此，发生旱涝急转的风险较高。 |
| 关键词: 海河流域，旱涝急转，SAPI，频次，强度 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目（2018YFA0606302）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（31701314） |
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| Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of the Drought-flood Abrupt Alternations over Haihe River Basin |
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YANG Yanjuan, CHEN Yuehao, chen si ning, XIONG Mingming
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Tianjin Climate Center
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| Abstract: |
| The research on the occurrence regularity of the drought-flood abrupt alternation in Haihe River Basin can provide scientific reference for flood control and drought relief. Based on the daily precipitation data of 159 meteorological stations in Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2019, the Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Index (SAPI) is calculated. Based on the SAPI, according to the drought-flood grade standard and drought-flood abrupt alternation conditions, the drought-flood abrupt alternation events since 1961 are screened out, and the frequency and intensity characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Haihe River Basin are analyzed. The results show that the annual average frequency of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Haihe River Basin is 33 times, which basically increases year by year, with an average of 37 times in recent 10 years. The intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation also showed an upward trend, and increased to above the average value after 2000；it showed a jumping increase with reaching the maximum value especially in recent 10 years. The drought-flood abrupt alternation occurred mostly in May, June and Mid September, and less in midsummer. The intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation presents a single peak distribution, and the maximum value appears from the middle of June to the first ten days of July. The corresponding frequency of drought-flood abrupt alternation is also more in this period, which increases the risk of flood disaster. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the frequency and intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation are high value areas in the southern part of Luanhe River system, the western part of Beisanhe river system and the central part of TuhaiMajia river. That is to say, the frequency and intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation are high in these areas, consequently, the risk of drought-flood abrupt alternation is high. These areas may become the focus of flood control. |
| Key words: Haihe River Basin drought-flood abrupt alternations SAPI frequency intensity |
