| 摘要: |
| 为深入挖掘旱灾风险动态评估中评价样本与评价标准之间存在的不确定性问题,提出用半偏减法集对势这一新的联系数伴随函数,建立旱灾风险动态评估的半偏减法集对势方法(SSSPP),并应用于宿州市2007-2017年旱灾风险动态评估和影响因子识别研究。结果表明：宿州市旱灾风险综合等级基本在2级以上,处于偏危险状态,其危险性子系统的风险评估波动最大,波动幅度与综合评价等级也最为相似,敏感性子系统和抗旱能力子系统波动较小,分别处于1.5-1.7级之间和2.3-2.5级之间,暴露性子系统有明显降低趋势,这三个子系统一定程度上减小了综合风险等级波动程度。通过半偏减法集对势方法进一步识别出了宿州市旱灾风险脆弱性指标有相对湿润度指数、土壤相对湿度、土壤类型、单位面积水资源量、耕地率、农业人口比例、水库调蓄率、单位面积现状供水能力、单位面积应急浇水能力、灌溉指数、节水灌溉率。以上11个指标是宿州市改善旱灾风险等级进一步需要调控的对象。半偏减法集对势方法可更精准合理地对联系数中的不确定性信息进行了分配,其概念内涵特征更具解释性,计算方法直观、计算简便,可认为是减法集对势、一阶效应全偏联系数的综合条件下的一种改进减法集对势,为动态评估指标总体发展趋势进一步识别脆弱性指标提供了新的有效途径。 |
| 关键词: 旱灾风险动态评估 脆弱性指标识别 集对分析 联系数 半偏减法集对势 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502405); 国家自然科学(51779067, 51709071); 山东省重点研发计划项目(2017GSF20101) |
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| Application of semipartial subtraction set pair potential method to the dynamic assessment of regional drought risk |
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Jin Juliang1, Zhao Xingyue1, Cui Yi1, Zhou Yuliang1, Chen Menglu1,2,3,2, Ning Shaowei1
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1.School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology;2.China;3.Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology
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| Abstract: |
| The dynamic assessment of drought risk assessment for further mining between samples and evaluation standards of many uncertainty problems, put forward by half a subtraction set pair potential this new contact number with function, establish a dynamic drought risk assessment and a half wide subtraction method of set pair potential (SSSPP), and applied to Suzhou city in 2007-2017 dynamic drought risk assessment and impact factor identification study, the results showed that: Suzhou city comprehensive drought risk level in basic level 2 above, in the partial dangerous state, the subsystem of the most volatile of risk assessment, risk volatility level and the comprehensive evaluation has the most similar to that of the subsystems of sensitivity and drought-resistant ability less volatile, respectively is 1.5-1.7 and 2.3 - 2.5 on the Richter scale, exposed temperament system has obviously decrease trend, the three subsystems to a certain extent reduce the overall risk level fluctuations. Through a partial subtraction method of set pair potential further identified the Suzhou city drought risk vulnerability index have relative wetting degree index, the soil relative humidity, the soil type, water quantity per unit area, rate of cultivated land, the proportion of agricultural population, reservoir storage rate, present situation of water supply capacity per unit area, water emergency capacity per unit area, irrigation index and Water-saving irrigation rate. The above 11 indicators are the objects that need to be further regulated to improve the drought risk level in Suzhou. Semipartial subtraction set pair potential method can be more accurate and reasonable ground couplet coefficient uncertainty information in the distribution of its more explanatory concept connotation characteristics, calculation method is intuitive, simple and convenient calculation, can be considered a subtraction set pair potential, the first-order effect fully integrated under the condition of partial connection number, an improved subtraction set pair potential for dynamic assessment index overall development trend of further recognition of vulnerability index provides a new effective way. |
| Key words: dynamic assessment of drought risk identification of vulnerability indicators set pair analysis correlate semipartial subtraction set pair potential |
