| 摘要: |
| 根据1951-2012年大渡河流域内气象站年降水量、年平均气温和铜街子站年径流量资料，利用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法识别年径流变化趋势，基于小波分析法检验其周期成分，采用有序聚类法、累计距平法及Pettitt法诊断年径流突变点，利用累积量斜率变化率比较法揭示气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流量的影响程度。研究结果表明：大渡河流域年径流在1951-1968年期间年径流呈不显著的减少趋势，1969-1987年期间年径流呈不显著的增加趋势，1988-2012年期间年径流呈不显著的减少趋势，1951-2012年期间年径流呈不显著的减少趋势；年径流存在7年、11年、17年和28年的周期成分；流域年径流在1968年、1987年发生突变；以1951-1968年为基准期，1969-1987年期间气候变化和人类活动对大渡河流域径流量减小的贡献率分别为36.22%和63.78%；在1988-2012年期间气候变化和人类活动对大渡河流域径流量减小的贡献率分别为33.68%和66.32%；人类活动是大渡河流域年径流量变化减小的主导因素，气候变化是次要因素。 |
| 关键词: 大渡河流域 年径流 气候变化 人类活动 变化特征 累积量斜率变化率比较法 归因分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV11 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(51679155)资助 |
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| Variation characteristics of annual runoff and its attribution analysis in Dadu river basin |
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ZHANG Lanting, WANG Wensheng, LIU Qiankui, ZHENG Fangfang
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College of Water Resource and Hydropower,Sichuan University
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| Abstract: |
| According to the data of annual precipitation, annual average temperature of climatological stations and annual runoff of Tongjiezi station in Dadu River Basin from 1951 to 2012, the Mann Kendall rank correlation test was used to identify the trend of annual runoff sequence, the periodic component was tested based on the wavelet analysis method, the sequential clustering method、the cumulative anomaly method and the Pettitt method were used to diagnose the change point, and the affect of climate changes and human activities on the annual runoff of the basin was revealed based on the comparison of the slope change rate of the cumulative amount. The results show that in the past 60 years, during 1951-1968, the annual runoff showed an insignificant decrease trend, period of 1969-1987 showed an insignificant increase trend, period of 1988-2012 showed an insignificant decrease trend, period of 1951-2012 showed an insignificant decrease trend; there were 7, 11, 17 and 28 year cycle components; in the past 60 years, change points of the annual runoff in Dadu River basin are in 1968 and 1987; 1951-1968 as the base period, during 1969-1987 the contribution rate of climate change and human beings activities to the reduction of annual runoff in Dadu River Basin is 36.22% and 63.78% respectively; during 1988-2012, the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the reduction of annual runoff is 33.68% and 66.32% respectively; human activities are the main factor and climate change is the secondary factor. |
| Key words: Dadu River Basin annual runoff climate change human activities Variation characteristics comparison method of cumulative slope change rate attribution analysis |
