| 摘要: |
| 随着气候变化与人类活动作用的加剧，流域水资源受变化环境的影响愈加显著。研究变化环境下的流域水资源系统变化特征及需水预测对支撑流域水资源管理与合理配置具有重要的指导意义。本文基于系统动力学原理，耦合了考虑物理机制的需水预测方法，建立水资源系统模型，以黄河流域为例，分析了多因子驱动及多要素胁迫作用下黄河流域水资源系统变化特征，采用MPI气候模式预估的未来气温、降水结果以及未来流域5种不同的经济社会发展情形，预测了黄河流域2017-2030年的水资源供需演变趋势。结果表明:①黄河流域的生活需水量随着流域人口及人均用水需求的增加不断增长。随着产业结构调整，工业需水量呈现缓慢减少态势，生态及三产需水量逐年增加，农业灌溉需水量呈下降趋势；②在加强流域水资源管理力度，增加节水技术投资的前提下，保障流域经济、社会协调发展，注重发展经济的同时兼顾流域生态环境保护，满足黄河流域下一阶段的经济社会可持续发展的要求；③为保障黄河流域水资源可持续发展，实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展，需要调整流域水资源管理策略，提高节水程度，促进流域产业结构优化。 |
| 关键词: 系统动力学 物理机制 需水预测 黄河流域 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404401)；国家自然科学(51779144, 51679144, 51879164)；中央公益性科研院所基本业务费(Y220011,Y519010)联合资助。 |
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| System dynamics model-based water demand prediction under changing environment with consideration of physical mechanism |
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chenyingjie1, jinbaoming1, jinjunliang2, wangguoqing2, caominxiong2
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1.College of Civil Engineering, Fuzhou University;2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institate
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| Abstract: |
| With the intensification of climate change and human activities, water resources in the basin are more and more affected by the changing environment. It is of great significance to study the change characteristics of watershed water resources system and water demand prediction in the changing environment to support the management and rational allocation of watershed water resources. Based on the principle of system dynamics, coupled with the water demand prediction method considering physical mechanism, this article establishes the model of water resources system. Taking the Yellow River basin as an example, this paper analyzes the change characteristics of water resources system in the Yellow River basin under the action of multi-factor driving and multi-element stress, and predicts the evolution trend of water resources supply and demand in the Yellow River basin from 2017 to 2030 according to five different economic and social development situations in the future basin and the predicted future temperature and precipitation results using MPI climate model. The results show that: (1) The domestic water demand of the Yellow River basin increases continuously with the increase of the population and the per capita water demand of the basin. With the adjustment of industrial structure, the water demand for industry shows a trend of slow decrease, while the water demand for ecology and production increases year by year.(2) under the premise of strengthening the river basin water resources management and increasing the investment in water-saving technology, ensure the coordinated development of the basin economy and society, pay attention to the development of the economy while giving consideration to ecological environment protection in the basin, meet the requirements of sustainable economic and social development in the next stage of the Yellow River basin. (3) In order to ensure the sustainable development of water resources in the Yellow River basin, realize the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin, it is necessary to adjust the strategies of water resources management in the basin, improve the degree of water-saving, and promote the optimization of the industrial structure of the basin. |
| Key words: system dynamics physical mechanism water demand forecast Yellow River basin |
