| 摘要: |
| 为动态分析水资源承载力变化状况、准确识别脆弱性指标，引用万有引力和阻尼系数的思想，构造了用以反映集对事件的联系程度及态势的引力减法集对势。将引力减法集对势应用于水资源承载力动态分析评价中、并与现有的减法集对势进行对比分析，结果表明：引力减法集对势对安徽省水资源承载力的动态分析及态势分析的结果与现有的减法集对势结果相一致，这两种集对势之间的相关系数接近1.0；引力减法集对势诊断出指标植被覆盖率、人口密度、入河污水排放达标率、水功能区水质达标率和生态用水率是安徽省2005-2015年水资源承载力评价的脆弱性指标，需重点调控，其他指标需注意做好改善工作。上述实例的分析表明：引力减法集对势方法运用于安徽省水资源承载力动态评价与诊断是可行的；引力减法集对势解释性强、计算简便、结果符合实际、适用性强，为判断集对事件的当前状态及发展趋势提供了新途径，在系统动态分析评价中具有应用前景。 |
| 关键词: 水资源承载力 动态评价 诊断分析 联系数 引力减法集对势 万有引力 阻尼系数 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV213 |
| 基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）,国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| Gravity basedsubtractive set pair potential method for dynamic evaluation and diagnosis of water resources carrying capacity |
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JIN Juliang1, LIU Xin1, ZHOU Rongxing1, ZHANG Haoyu1, NING Shaowei1, HE Jun2, CUI Yi1
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1.School of Civil Engineering and Water Conservancy Engineering,Hefei University of Technology;2.Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute,MWR
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| Abstract: |
| In order to dynamically analyze the change of water resources carrying capacity and accurately identify the vulnerable indexes, the idea of universal gravitation and damping coefficient is used for reference to construct gravity based subtractive set pair potential, which can reflect the relation and situation of set pair events. Method of gravity based subtractive set pair potential was applied to dynamic analysis of the water resources carrying capacity evaluation, and compared with the existing subtractive set pair potential, the results show that the dynamic analysis of the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui province by the gravity based subtractive set pair potential and the comparison of the situation analysis of subtractive set pair potential are consistent,and the correlation coefficient between the two kinds of set pair situation is close to 1.0;According to the gravity based subtractive set pair potential, the indexes of vegetation coverage rate , population density , sewage discharge reaching the standard, water quality reaching the standard and ecological water use rate in the water functional area in 2005-2015 are the vulnerability indexes of water resources carrying capacity evaluation in Anhui province, which should be mainly controlled . And other indicators need to be improved .The analysis of the above example shows that the gravity based subtractive set pair potential is feasible for the dynamic evaluation and diagnosis of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui province; gravity based subtractive set pair potential has strong potential interpretation, simple calculation, practical results and strong applicability. It provides a new way for judging the current condition and development trend of the set pair events, and has application prospect in system dynamic analysis and evaluation. |
| Key words: water resources carrying capacity dynamic evaluation diagnostic analysis connection number gravity based subtractive set pair potential universal gravitation damping coefficient |
