| 摘要: |
| 我国西北地区水工混凝土建筑物经常受到低温冻害和盐渍侵蚀作用，因此，混凝土劣化预测的研究对水工建筑物的寿命预测具有十分重要的意义。为模拟水工混凝土建筑物所受到的破坏，以实验室方法进行混凝土试件的盐冻试验，得到4种工况的混凝土试件随着盐冻次数的增加，其质量和抗压强度的变化。研究抽取了其中两种工况的原始数据，首先利用灰色残差GM(1,1)模型对原始数据进行处理，并建立了预测模型。然后通过预测模型进行计算，得到了质量和抗压强度的修正值。最后通过灰色残差GM(1,1)—Markov模型，对150~200次盐冻试验的质量和抗压强度进行预测。结果表明：质量和抗压强度的预测值与原始值相比误差较小，在一定范围内，验证了该模型可对混凝土劣化的质量和抗压强度损失预测具有很好的效果。 |
| 关键词: 混凝土 耐久性 预测 灰色残差 马尔科夫链 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| Study on the prediction of hydraulic concrete degradation based on gray residual GM (1,1)-Markov model |
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KANG Chuntao, GONG Li, WANG Zhonghui, YANG Yiqun, WANG Hong
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Lanzhou Jiaotong University
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| Abstract: |
| The hydraulic concrete buildings in northwest China are often affected by low temperature frost and salt erosion, so the study of concrete deterioration prediction is of great significance to the life prediction of hydraulic buildings. In order to simulate the damage of hydraulic concrete buildings, the salt freezing test of the concrete test piece was carried out by laboratory method, obtained the quality and pressure strength with increase of the salt freezing times under 4 kinds of conditions. The two of these conditions were extracted from the study as the original data. Firstly processed these data by the gray residual GM (1,1) model, and established the prediction model. Then, obtained the correction value of mass and pressure strength by the prediction model. Finally, predicted the quality and pressure resistance of 150 to 200 salt freezing tests by the gray residual GM (1,1)-Markov model. The results show that the prediction value of quality and pressure strength is less error than the original value, and in a certain range, the model can be proved to have good effect on the prediction of the deterioration of concrete and the loss of pressure strength. |
| Key words: Concrete Durability Prediction Grey Residual Markov Chain |
