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大城市水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展研究
王丽川1, 侯保灯1, 周毓彦1, 陈晓清1, 王欣1, 王高旭2, 黄亚3
1.中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室;2.南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;3.广西大学 土木建筑工程学院
摘要:
水资源、能源、粮食是我国的重要资源,三者之间相互依存,在城市发展过程中起着重要作用,是城市可持续发展的重要基础资源。以上海市为例,构建上海市W-E-F系统的综合评价指标体系,采用熵值法和变异系数法对指标赋权,然后建立耦合协调度模型,分析上海市W-E-F系统和各子系统间协调发展水平,并应用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测2018-2025年上海市W-E-F系统的耦合协调度发展趋势。结果显示:上海市W-E-F系统发展分为两个阶段,第一阶段为2003-2013年,W-E-F系统呈下降趋势;第二阶段为2013-2017年,W-E-F系统呈稳定上升趋势,并在未来2018-2025年耦合协调度呈稳定上升趋势,至2025年过渡到良好协调发展水平,但未上升到优质协调发展水平,因此上海市应该继续发展资源利用效率,提高城市协调发展空间。
关键词:  W-E-F系统  耦合协调  上海市  灰色预测
DOI:
分类号:TV
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFE0196000)、广西研究生教育创新计划项目(YCBZ2018023)
Research on the Coupling Coordinative Degree among Urban Water-Energy-Food System
WANG Lichuan1, HOU Baodeng1, ZHOU Yuyan1, CHEN Xiaoqing1, WANG Xin1, WANG Gaoxu2, HUANG Ya3
1.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research;2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic;3.Guangxi University
Abstract:
Water, energy and food are important resources in China. These resources are interdependent and play an important role in the process of urban development. In addition, they are important basic resources for sustainable urban development. Taking Shanghai as an example, a comprehensive evaluation index system of the Shanghai Water-Energy-Food (W-E-F) system is constructed. The entropy and coefficient of variation methods are used to weight the index. Then, a coupling coordination model is established to analyse the coordinated development level of the Shanghai W-E-F system and its subsystems. Next, the grey GM (1,1) model is applied to predict the coupling coordination development trend of the Shanghai W-E-F system during the period from 2018-2025. The results show that the development of the W-E-F system in Shanghai is divided into two stages. The first stage occurs from 2003-2013, during which the W-E-F system shows a downward trend; the second stage occurs from 2013-2017, during which the W-E-F system shows a stable upward trend. The coupling coordination degree shows a stable upward trend during the future period of 2018-2025 and a transition to a good coordinated development level by 2025. However, the results do not show a transition to a high-quality coordinated development level. Therefore, Shanghai should continue to develop its resource utilization efficiency and improve the coordinated development space of the city.
Key words:  W-E-F system  Coupling coordination  Shanghai City  gray prediction
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