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基于区间型贝叶斯模型的湟水干流水质评价
耿昭克1, 陆丹1, 闵敏1, 王司阳2
1.青海省水文水资源勘测局;2.黄河水利科学研究院
摘要:
湟水是黄河上游重要支流,也是黄河来水重要水源之一。本研究对2018年湟水干流麻皮寺、海晏、石崖庄、扎麻隆、新宁桥、西宁、团结桥、小峡桥、平安桥、乐都、民和、湟水桥等12个断面的五日生化需氧量(BOD5)、化学需氧量(COD)、氨氮(NH3-N)、总磷(TP)、六价铬(Cr6+)等5项指标采用区间型贝叶斯模型进行水质评价,评价结果表明:湟水干流麻皮寺-扎麻隆河段水质受BOD5和COD的影响较大,新宁桥-乐都河段水质主要受BOD5和NH3-N的影响,下游民和-湟水桥河段各个指标对水质影响较均衡;相比传统贝叶斯模型评价结果,区间型贝叶斯模型结果更能直观反映出监测断面的水质变化,与湟水干流的水质现状较为接近,符合湟水从上游至下游呈“水质良好—水质恶化—水质好转”的变化趋势,其中城区河段水质较差,污染负荷过大是水质恶坏的主要原因。
关键词:  黄河  湟水干流  区间型贝叶斯模型  水质评价
DOI:
分类号:X824?????
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508404, 2018YFC0407401);国家自然科学基金(51979120);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2018-07, HKY-JBYW-2019-10, HKY-JBYW2019-19);黄科院科技发展基金资助项目(201908)
Water quality evaluation in huangshui main stream based on interval type Bayesian model
GENG Zhaoke1, [ ]LU Dan1, MIN Min1, WANG Siyang2
1.Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Qinghai Province,Xi’ ning;2.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research
Abstract:
Huangshui is an important tributary of the upper reaches of the Yellow River and one of the important water sources for the Yellow River. In this study, We used the interval type bayesian model to evaluate the water quality of BOD5, COD, NH3-N, TP, Cr6+ in the sections of mampi temple, haiyan, shiyazhuang, zhamalong, xining bridge, tuanjie bridge, xiaoxia bridge, pingan bridge, ledu, minhe and huangshui bridge of Huangshui main stream in 2018.The result showed that the water quality of the huangshui main stream in Mapisi–Zhamalong secetion was greatly affected by BOD5 and COD , and Xiningqiao-Ledu section was mainly affected by the BOD5 and NH3-N, The influence on every indexe of Minhe–Huangshuiqiao section was isostatic.Compared with traditional Bayesian model, the conclusion of the interval type Bayesian model can reflect the change trend of the water quality of the monitoring sections more intuitively and in line with the actual situation, the water quality change trend of the monitoring section from the upstream to the downstream " good- deteriorated- improved" was proved. Among them, the water quality in urban reaches is poor, and the main reason for the bad water quality is excessive pollution load.
Key words:  Yellow river  Huangshui main stream  Interval type Bayesian model  water quality assessment
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