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近55年京津冀城市群降水多尺度分析
曹永强,刘明阳,李玲慧,宁月
辽宁师范大学地理科学学院
摘要:
受全球气候变暖及城市化进程加快的影响,区域降水机理发生改变,导致降水的频次和强度有所变化。本文以京津冀城市群中25个气象站点1964-2018年的逐日降水数据为基础资料,采用距平法、Mann-Kendall检验法、线性拟合以及空间插值分析等方法,从多年平均降水、年内降水分配和极端降水三个尺度分析京津冀城市群降水的长程演化特征。结果表明:(1)京津冀城市群年平均降水呈不显著减小趋势,降水变差系数在0.14-0.41之间。年平均降水空间上表现为“东多西少、南多北少”的特点,其中燕山山地和海河平原降水离散程度相对较高。(2)京津冀城市群年内降水呈现出集中化趋势,降水主要集中在七月下旬,并呈不显著提前化趋势。降水集中度在空间上表现为由东北向西南方向逐渐减少;降水集中期在空间上呈现出由北向南逐渐增强的趋势。(3)京津冀城市群极端降水(R99P)在129.57-252.68mm之间波动,约占总降水的28.6%-47.9%。极端降水与年均降水的空间分布大致相同,其中仅有7个气象站点的变化趋势稳定。本研究成果将为城区雨情预报、防涝规划与海绵城市建设等提供参考。
关键词:  降水  多尺度  时空特征  京津冀城市群
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(51579126,51779114), 辽宁省“百千万人才工程”资助基金, 大连市科技创新基金(2018J13SN116)。
Multi-scale analysis of precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration in the past 55 years
CAO Yong-qiang1, liu mingyang2, li linghui2, ning yue2
1.School of urban planning and Environmental science, Liaoning Normal University;2.School of Geographical Sciences, Liaoning Normal University
Abstract:
Due to the global warming and the acceleration of urbanization, the regional precipitation mechanism has changed, resulting in changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation. Based on the daily precipitation data of 25 meteorological stations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration from 1964 to 2018, this paper uses the method of anomaly, Mann-Kendall test, linear fitting and spatial interpolation analysis to obtain precipitation from many years and precipitation during the year. Analysis of precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration from three years of average precipitation, annual precipitation distribution and extreme precipitation. The results show that: (1) The average annual precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration fluctuated significantly, showing no significant decrease. The space is characterized by “less east, more west, less south and less north”; the precipitation variation coefficient is between 0.14-0.41. Yanshan Mountain and Haihe Plain have larger variation coefficient and higher dispersion. (2) The precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration showed a trend of concentration during the year. The spatial performance is characterized by a gradual decrease from the northeast to the southwest. The precipitation is mainly concentrated in the late July, and the concentration period shows a trend of not significantly premature. The space shows a trend of increasing from the north to the south. (3) The extreme precipitation (R99P) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is 129.57-252.68mm, accounting for 28.6%-47.9% of the total precipitation. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation and average annual precipitation is roughly the same, with only seven meteorological stations showing a stable trend.
Key words:  precipitation  multi-scale  space-time characteristics  Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration
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