| 摘要: |
| 针对特高拱坝运维期内结构安全风险的动态性和复杂性,以及失事后果严重,基于层次分析法、模糊理论和定量风险评估分析方法,利用SQL Server数据库和Visual C#.NET编程技术,研发了一套特高拱坝动态安全风险分析系统。根据特高拱坝的荷载结构特性、安全监测仪器种类繁多和安全监测体系布置复杂的特点,构建了适应不同监测类型和大量安全监测数据的数据库,提出了基于监测数据、巡视检查和物探检测的特高拱坝安全综合评价体系,以此确定特高拱坝事故发生的可能性级别。利用当量法对事故损失进行量化来确定损失的级别。最后结合特高拱坝事故发生的可能性级别和由此引起的损失级别,基于风险矩阵评估特高拱坝动态安全风险等级。该系统为特高拱坝动态安全风险提供了一个快速的分析平台,提高了水电工程的安全分析及风险决策管控水平,具有一定的工程意义和应用价值。 |
| 关键词: 特高拱坝 安全监测 层次分析法 模糊理论 当量法 风险分析 系统平台 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV698 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划（National Key R&D Program of China）——大坝安全智慧管理决策系统研发与示范（2018YFC0407105）、华能集团总部科技项目（HNKJ17-H21） |
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| Development and application of dynamic safety risk analysis system of the super-high concrete arch dam |
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WANG Zicheng1, XU Houlei1, ZHAO Zhiyong1, ZHANG Libing1, CHEN Hao2, CHEN Yajun1
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1.PowerChina Kunming Engineering Corporation Limited;2.Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Co,Ltd
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| Abstract: |
| According to the dynamics and complexity of structural safety risk during the operation and maintenance period of super-high concrete arch dam, which has a serious consequences if the dam is broken. The dynamic safety risk analysis system of the super-high concrete arch dam is developed, which is based on analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy theory and quantitative risk assessment analysis method, by using the basic knowledge and programming technology of SQL Server database and Microsoft Visual C# .NET. On the basis of the load structure characteristics of super-high concrete arch dam, which has many kinds of safety monitoring instruments and the layout of safety monitoring system is very complex, a database adapted to different monitoring types and massive safety monitoring data is constructed, and a comprehensive safety evaluation system for super-high concrete arch dam based on monitoring data, inspection and geophysical detection is proposed to determine the possibility grade of accident for super-high concrete arch dam. The losses that bring tremendous casualties, economic losses and the effect on social environment are quantified by an equivalent method, which can be used to compute grades in accordance with the seriousness of the case. In the end, based on risk matrix, the dynamic safety risk level of super-high concrete arch dam is assessed by considering the probability level of occurrence of the accident and the loss level caused by the accident. The system is a fast analysis platform which can analyze the dynamic safety risk of super-high concrete arch dam, improves the level of safety analysis and risk decision-making management and control of water conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, it also has some engineering significance and practical application value. |
| Key words: super-high arch dam safety monitoring Analytic hierarchy process fuzzy theory an equivalent method risk analysis system platform |
