| 摘要: |
| 本文以太湖流域武澄锡虞区典型站为例,基于长时间序列逐日降雨与水位数据,采用累积距平法、皮尔逊频率曲线、克里金插值等方法对水位进行了还现分析和暴雨洪水重现期分析,探讨了城镇化背景下典型平原河网区暴雨洪水重现期变化规律及成因。研究结果表明：(1)武澄锡虞区不同量级降雨重现期均有提前,极端降雨频率增大；武澄锡虞区小量级洪水事件(T=5a,10a,20a)发生频率有所增加,量级较大(T=50a)洪峰水位重现期城区与郊区则有显著差异,常州站1960年50a一遇洪峰水位重现期在2010年变为68a一遇,而白勺山站1960年50a一遇洪峰水位重现期在2010年提前至32a。(2)小量级洪水事件发生频率增加主要是由降雨增加、城镇扩张以及河网水系衰减所致,同等量级的暴雨导致洪峰水位不断加大；而闸泵、圩垸等水利工程建设对较高量级洪水调节作用不断加强,导致高量级洪峰水位有所降低,致使城区圩垸内洪水风险减小。对于不同量级的洪峰水位,下垫面特征变化和水利工程建设影响程度不同。 |
| 关键词: 关 键 词：暴雨洪水 重现期 水利工程 武澄锡虞区 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401502)；国家自然科学基金(41771032)；江苏水利基金重大项目(2015003)。 |
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| The Change of return period of Rainstorm and Flood in Plain River Network Area under Urbanization——a case study of WuChengXiYu Region in the Core Regions of the Taihu Lake Basin |
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WANG Danqing1, XU Youpeng1, WANG Siyuan1, WANG Qiang1, YUAN Jia1, HU Zunle2
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1.School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University;2.Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau of Jiangsu Province
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| Abstract: |
| Taking Wuchengxiyu Region as an example, based on long-term sequence daily rainfall and water level data, the methods of cumulative anomaly, Pearson frequency curve and Kriging interpolation were used to analyze the change of return period for storm flood and water level. The change of the return period of the rainstorm rainfall and flood and its cause in the typical plain river network area under the background of urbanization are explored. The results showed that the rainfall under different return periods were decreased, and hence the frequency of extreme rainfall increased in Wuchengxiyu Region. The frequency of small-scale flood events (T=5a, 10a, 20a) in Wuchengxiyu Region has increased, the larger magnitude flood (T=50a) in urban and suburban areas is different. The flood with 50a return period in 1960 increased to 68a in 2010 in Changzhou Station, while the flood with 50a return period in Baishaoshan station decreased to 32a in 2010. The increase of the frequency in small magnitude flood events is mainly caused by the rainfall increase, urban expansion and the attenuation of river network and water system, the flood level in 2010 under the same magnitude of rainfall with 1960 has continuously increased. The construction of water conservancy projects such as sluice pumps has continuously strengthened the regulation of higher-level floods, resulting in a reduction in flood risk in urban areas. For different magnitude of flood peak water level, the impact of underlying surface characters and water conservancy construction are different. |
| Key words: Storm flood, return period, water conservancy project, Wuchengxiyu Region |
