| 本文已被：浏览 10次 下载 0次 |
|
|
|
| 鄂尔多斯市“四水四定”风险评价及预警研究 |
|
李卓璇1,2,3,4,5,6, 王小军1, 贺瑞敏1, 徐斌2, 柳剑峰5, 马红丽6
|
|
1.南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室;2.河海大学水文水资源学院;3.水利部非常规水高效开发利用技术创新中心;4.水利部应对气候变化研究中心;5.内蒙古自治区水利科学研究院;6.鄂尔多斯市河湖保护中心
|
|
| 摘要: |
| “四水四定”是干旱半干旱地区缓解水资源供需矛盾的重要调控路径。本文以鄂尔多斯市为研究区域,在界定“四水四定”多维风险概念及其互馈机制的基础上,构建“四水四定”风险评价指标体系。综合运用模糊集对分析方法对2007—2023年各子系统及综合风险演变过程进行定量评估,结合灰色关联分析识别关键驱动因素的阶段性变化特征,并基于最优Copula函数与云模型构建多维联合风险概率模型与风险预警机制。结果表明：(1)研究期内鄂尔多斯市“四水四定”综合风险整体呈阶梯式下降趋势,系统风险等级由Ⅴ级(极高风险)逐步降低至Ⅱ级(中低风险)；其中,“以水定城”与“以水定地”风险下降幅度较为显著,而“水资源”与“以水定人”子系统仍为当前综合风险的主要来源；(2)风险驱动机制呈现明显的阶段演替特征,由初期(2007—2009年)“水—地”主导,逐步演变为中期(2010—2012年)“水—产”主导,并在后期(2013—2022年)表现为“水—地”与“水—人”的复合交替影响；(3)Copula分析结果表明,水资源风险对其他子系统风险具有显著的诱导与放大作用,当水资源处于高风险时,引发至少1、2、3、4个其他子系统风险超限的概率分别为85.07%、75.36%、62.51%和44.10%。最后基于风险超越强度的云模型构建风险预警机制,为区域水资源风险管控提供支撑。 |
| 关键词: “四水四定” 风险评价 Copula模型 鄂尔多斯市 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV213.9 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206505)；南京水利科学研究院研究生学位论文基金(Yy525004) |
|
| Study on Risk Assessment and Early Warning of the “Four Principles for Water Management” in Ordos City |
|
lizhuoxuan,Wang Xiaojun,He Ruimin,Xu Bin,Liu Jianfeng,Ma Hongli
|
|
1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute;2.College of hydrology and water resource, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098,;3.Water Resources Research Institute of Inner Mongolia, Huhhot 010050;4.Ordos River and Lake Protection Center
|
| Abstract: |
| The "Four Principles for Water Management" policy is crucial for alleviating the contradiction between water supply and demand in arid and semi-arid regions. Taking Ordos City as the study area, based on defining the multidimensional risk concept and evolutionary mechanism of the "Four Principles for Water Management," this paper constructs an evaluation indicator system comprising 23 indicators across five-dimensional subsystems: "water resources, city, land, population, and industry." By comprehensively applying Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis, the evolution trajectories of both single-system and comprehensive risks from 2007 to 2023 were quantitatively evaluated. Combined with the Grey Relational Analysis model, the succession laws of core driving factors were analyzed. Furthermore, a multidimensional joint risk probability and early warning mechanism was constructed based on the optimal Copula function and Cloud model. The results indicate that: (1) During the study period, the comprehensive risk of the "Four Principles for Water Management" in Ordos City exhibited a step-like downward trend, with the system state steadily declining from Level V (extremely high risk) to Level II (medium-low risk). Among them, the risks of "determining city by water" and "determining land by water" decreased significantly, while the "water resources" and "determining population by water" subsystems constitute the main sources of the current comprehensive risk. (2) The driving mechanism of comprehensive risk presented distinct structural succession characteristics. The dominant contradiction shifted from an initial (2007-2009) "water-land" led conflict, to a "water-industry/water-city" led conflict in the middle stage (2010-2012) and transitioned to a composite alternating influence of "water-land" and "water-population" in the later stage (2013-2022). (3) The optimal Copula function indicates that water resource risks significantly amplify and induce the occurrence of other risks. For instance, the probabilities of a water resource risk triggering at least 1, 2, 3, and 4 other risks to simultaneously exceed their limits are 85.07%, 75.36%, 62.51%, and 44.10%, respectively. Based on the cloud model of risk exceedance intensity, a risk early warning mechanism was established to support regional water resources risk management. |
| Key words: Four Principles for Water Management Risk assessment Copula model Ordos City |
