| 摘要: |
| 城市内湖在持续人为胁迫下面临生态退化风险，亟需系统性的健康诊断与风险识别方法。以典型城市内湖——黄冈市遗爱湖为研究对象，构建基于DPSIR模型的生态系统健康评价体系，结合蒙特卡洛模拟分析不同扰动强度下的生态响应规律与环境敏感性特征，并提出融合健康指数与敏感性指数的生态风险管理分区方法。结果表明，遗爱湖综合生态健康指数均值为0.34，整体处于亚健康水平，遗爱东湖生态健康状况整体优于西湖。敏感性分析表明，在20%扰动条件下，东湖中度及以上敏感区占比达94.4%，虽整体健康状况较好，但对外界扰动的响应较西湖更为强烈。SHAP分析表明，东湖生态健康主要受生物多样性驱动，敏感性主要受底泥总氮影响；西湖生态健康与敏感性的主要驱动因子均为营养盐浓度。生态风险分区结果显示，东湖的生态高危区内宜采取以内源控制和水动力优化为核心的预防性保护措施；西湖的生态受损区内宜实施以外源削减和沉水植被恢复为重点的长期生态修复。 |
| 关键词: 城市内湖 生态系统健康 环境敏感性 DPSIR模型 蒙特卡洛模拟 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:X524??????????? |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3208903)；南京水利科学研究院研究生学位论文基金(Yy925003) |
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| Sensitivity Analysis of Urban Lake Ecosystems Based on the DPSIR Model |
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ZHAO Hongzhang, CHEN Cheng, MA Jinge, HE Mengnan, LIU Yang, DAI Jiayi
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Eco-environmental Research Department,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
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| Abstract: |
| Urban lakes face ecological degradation risks under sustained anthropogenic stress, necessitating systematic health diagnosis and risk identification methods. Taking Yiai Lake, a typical urban lake in Huanggang City, as the study area, a DPSIR-based ecosystem health assessment framework was developed. Monte Carlo simulation was employed to analyze ecological response patterns and environmental sensitivity characteristics under varying disturbance intensities, and a management zoning method integrating health and sensitivity indices was proposed. The results showed that the mean comprehensive ecological health index of Yiai Lake was 0.34, indicating an overall sub-healthy status, with East Lake exhibiting better ecological health than West Lake. Sensitivity analysis revealed that under a 20% disturbance scenario, moderate-and-above sensitive areas in East Lake accounted for 94.4%, indicating that despite its relatively good health status, East Lake responded more strongly to external disturbances than West Lake. SHAP analysis showed that East Lake health was primarily driven by biodiversity, with sensitivity mainly influenced by sediment total nitrogen, while nutrient concentration was the dominant driver of both health and sensitivity in West Lake. Ecological risk zoning suggested that preventive measures centered on endogenous pollution control and hydrodynamic optimization should be adopted in the high-risk zones of East Lake, while long-term restoration focusing on exogenous pollution reduction and submerged vegetation recovery should be implemented in the damaged zones of West Lake. |
| Key words: urban lake ecosystem health environmental sensitivity DPSIR model Monte Carlo simulation |
