| 摘要: |
| 博斯腾湖作为西北干旱区重要水资源载体,承担着维系区域生态平衡与支撑社会经济发展的关键功能。然而,在全球气候变化背景下,其未来可利用水量的不确定性显著增加,制约了水资源的高效利用与优化配置。本文通过结合SWAT水文模型与全球气候模式,预测了SSP126、SSP370、SSP585三种温室气体排放情景下2024–2100年入湖径流变化,并基于博斯腾湖适宜生态水位预测动态可调节水量。在SSP126情景下,未来黄水沟、清水河及乌什塔拉河入湖水量先减少后增加,开都河呈增加趋势；在SSP370情景下,入湖水量呈现“先增后减”的变化特征；在SSP585情景下,黄水沟、清水河及乌什塔拉河入湖水量先增加后减少,开都河呈减少趋势。未来低、中、高排放情景下,博斯腾湖动态可调节水量分别为0.76亿～0.84亿m3、0.44亿～0.64亿m3和0.31亿～0.57亿m3。相对于2023年现状,中高排放情景下动态可调节水量呈下降趋势,这将影响流域工农业的可持续发展,加剧生活用水供需矛盾,对区域水安全构成威胁。本研究可为干旱区湖泊水资源优化配置提供科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 西北干旱区 博斯腾湖 可利用水量 SWAT流域水文模型 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金创新研究(52121006)塔里木河流域管理局科研项目(2024KYXM0004)资助。 |
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| Analysis of the available water volume of Bosten Lake under climate change |
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LI Jiang1, YANG Xuanye2, WEI Guanghui1, WANG Yong1, WEI Mengru2, ZHANG Xia2, YAN Xingcheng2, QIAO Ruxia2, FENG Tao2
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1.Bureau of Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Management;2.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
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| Abstract: |
| Bosten Lake, a crucial water resource in the arid region of northwest China, plays a vital role in maintaining regional ecological balance and supporting socio-economic development. However, under the backdrop of global climate change, the uncertainty surrounding its future available water volume has significantly increased, limiting the efficient utilization and optimal allocation of water resources. This study integrates the SWAT hydrological model with global climate models to predict the changes in lake inflow runoff from 2024 to 2100 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios: SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585. Additionally, the study forecasts the dynamically available water volume based on the predicted suitable ecological water levels for Bosten Lake.Under the SSP126 scenario, the inflow from Huangshuigu, Qingshuihe, and Ushitala Rivers first decreases and then increases, while the inflow from Kaidu River shows a rising trend. Under the SSP370 scenario, inflows follow a "first increase, then decrease" pattern. Under the SSP585 scenario, the inflows from Huangshuigu, Qingshuihe, and Ushitala Rivers first increase and then decrease, while the inflow from Kaidu River shows a decreasing trend. Under future low, medium, and high emission scenarios, the dynamically adjustable water volumes for Bosten Lake are projected to range from 7.6 million to 8.4 million m3, 4.4 million to 6.4 million m3, and 3.1 million to 5.7 million m3, respectively. Compared to the 2023 baseline, the dynamically available water volume is projected to decrease under medium and high emission scenarios, which will negatively impact the sustainable development of agriculture and industry in the basin, exacerbate the supply-demand conflict for domestic water, and pose a threat to regional water security. This study provides scientific evidence for the optimal allocation of water resources in arid region lakes. |
| Key words: Climatic change arid region of Northwest Bosten Lake usable water yield SWAT Watershed Hydrological Model |
