| 摘要: |
| 近年来暴雨洪水事件频发,长距离调水工程的运行安全面临严峻挑战。本文以超标准暴雨洪水下的长距离调水工程为研究对象,采用WBS-RBS分析方法,从工程结构和风险因素两个维度构建风险矩阵,系统识别其风险事件及来源；针对传统权重分配方法的主观性缺陷,提出了基于灰色关联系数改进的TOPSIS法,结合建筑物类型及所处环境等多维度因素,对沿线建筑物进行客观赋权；最后,考虑外部环境、人类活动和运行管理等风险来源对工程的影响,构建顺向链式传导结构,分析风险在工程中的传递机制,量化风险来源对建筑物的影响程度,计算各建筑物的风险值,并结合赋权结果对整体工程风险进行评估。以某长距离调水工程某管理处为例,运用该模型进行了风险评估,结果表明该管理处处于低风险状态。 |
| 关键词: 超标准暴雨洪水，长距离调水工程，TOPSIS法，风险传递 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:黄河水科学研究联合基金项目(U2243244) |
|
| Risk assessment study of long-distance water transfer project under super-standard heavy rainfall flood |
|
YANG Qi, MA Fuheng, YE Wei, LI Qiang
|
|
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
|
| Abstract: |
| With the frequent occurrence of heavy rainfall and flood events in recent years, the operation safety of long-distance water transfer projects is facing serious challenges. This paper takes the long-distance water transfer project under the super-standard rainstorm flood as the research object, adopts the WBS-RBS analysis method, constructs the risk matrix from the two dimensions of engineering structure and risk factors, and systematically identifies the risk events and their sources; for the defects of subjectivity in the traditional weight allocation method, it proposes the TOPSIS method based on the improvement of gray correlation coefficients, and combines the multidimensional factors of the building type and the environment to objectively assign weights to the buildings along the route; finally, considering the influence of external environment, human activities and operation and management and other risk sources on the project, it assigns weights to the buildings. Finally, considering the influence of risk sources such as external environment, human activities and operation management on the project, we construct a downward chain transmission structure, analyze the risk transfer mechanism in the project, quantify the influence of risk sources on the buildings, calculate the risk value of each building, and evaluate the overall project risk by combining with the weighting results. Taking a management office of a long-distance water transfer project as an example, the model was applied to carry out a risk assessment, and the results showed that the management office was in a low-risk state. |
| Key words: Excessive Stormwater Flooding Long Distance Water Transfer Project TOPSIS Method Risk Transfer |
