| 摘要: |
| 极端气候事件日益增加频发,水库大坝溃坝带来的风险逐渐引起了社会和学术界的广泛关注。溃坝事件不仅会造成巨大的生命财产损失,还对社会和环境造成深远影响。为应对溃坝带来的各类风险,本研究旨在探索保险机制在水库大坝工程领域的应用,为水库大坝构建科学的风险转移方案。本研究基于风险理念构建费率厘定模型,在溃坝风险的基础上综合考虑免赔额即溃坝责任赔偿等问题确定纯风险费率,并从资本补偿的角度采用资本定价模型(CAPM)计算附加费率。溃坝风险评估使用事件树法计算水库大坝工程的溃坝概率,并考虑生命、经济及社会与环境三类损失。最后通过对某大型土石坝进行实证分析,验证本研究方法的适用性。本研究方法适用于计算各类水库大坝工程的溃坝保险费率,可为大坝风险转移方案的制定提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 水库大坝工程 溃坝保险 免赔额 费率厘定 风险评估 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P228 |
| 基金项目:基金项目：世界一流的三峡集团水库水电站大坝安全管理能力建设咨询项目（Hj724122）；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金 （Y724007、Y724010） |
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| A Study on the Determination Model of Dam Breach Insurance Premium Based on Risk Assessment |
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HUANG Jianfeng1, HOU Wenang1, ZHANG Shichen1, Jiesuer Abudusalamu2
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1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute;2.Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Water Resources Operation and Dispatch Center
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| Abstract: |
| The increasing frequency of extreme climate events has heightened concerns over the risks associated with dam failures, which can cause significant loss of life and property, as well as profound social and environmental impacts. This study explores the application of insurance mechanisms in reservoir dam engineering, aiming to establish a scientific risk transfer framework. A premium determination model is developed based on risk concepts, considering deductibles and breach liability to calculate the pure risk premium. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is employed from a capital compensation perspective to estimate the additional premium. Dam failure risk is assessed using event tree analysis, accounting for life, economic, and social-environmental losses. An empirical analysis of a large earth-rock dam is conducted to validate the proposed methodology. This approach is applicable to calculating dam failure insurance premiums for various types of reservoir dams and can provide valuable insights for developing dam risk transfer strategies. |
| Key words: Reservoir Dam Engineering Dam Failure Insurance Deductible Premium Determination Risk Assessment |
