| 摘要: |
| 全球气候变化正在对水资源的时空分布和管理措施产生深远影响，特别是在不均匀分布的中国东部季风区。为探究南水北调中线工程源区所在的中央水塔东部的水文变化特征及其驱动因素，本研究基于树木年轮宽度数据发展的六条区域水文重建序列，运用嵌套主成分分析方法揭示了过去四个多世纪的复合水文动态。结果表明，源区经历了9个湿润期和8个干旱期，且出现了23个极端高值年和30个极端低值年。周期性分析显示该区域水文变化具有多个准周期，包括2.4-2.9年、3.8-3.9年、8.6年、12.9-13.6年、22.2-25.5年和73.0年的波动特征。空间响应分析表明，区域降水对中央水塔东部水资源的补给具有显著影响，而高温条件下蒸发损失的加剧对水资源储量构成压力。此外，中央水塔东部的水文过程与历史旱涝事件密切关联，尤其与王朝末期灾害频发的情况存在一定联系，为社会稳定发展提供警示。全球大气环流变化，尤其是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和太平洋年代际振荡位相变化为主的太平洋气候变化，通过调节太平洋沃克环流等大尺度环流改变海洋向陆地的水汽输送，显著影响中央水塔东部的水文过程。研究还揭示南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区水文过程存在跨尺度耦合特征，并在21世纪持续增强。因此，亟需加强水资源调度和管理，以应对未来气候变化带来输入型水资源不确定性危机和级联放大风险，确保水资源的可持续供应和工程的长期稳定运行。 |
| 关键词: 树木年轮 中央水塔东部 南水北调中线工程 气候变化 复合水文动态 水资源管理 |
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| Complex hydrologic dynamics of the eastern Central Water Tower over the past four centuries from a tree-ring perspective |
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chenfeng,Wang shijie,Yue weipeng,Zhao xiaoen,Chen youping,Zhangwenwen,Humao,Caohonghua
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Yunnan University
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| Abstract: |
| Global climate changes are having profound impacts on the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and management practices, especially in the unevenly distributed monsoon region of eastern China. In order to investigate the characteristics of hydrological changes and their driving factors in the eastern Central Water Tower where the source area of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located, this study reveals the complex hydrologic dynamics over the past four centuries by using nested principal component analysis based on six regional hydrological reconstruction sequences developed from tree-ring width data. The results showed that the eastern Central Water Tower experienced 9 wet periods and 8 drought periods, and that there were 23 extreme high and 30 extreme low years. The cyclicity analysis revealed multiple quasi-periods of hydrologic variability in the region, including fluctuations characterized by 2.4-2.9 years, 3.8-3.9 years, 8.6 years, 12.9-13.6 years, 22.2-25.5 years, and 73.0 years. Spatial response analyses indicate that regional precipitation has a significant impact on water recharge in the source area, while increased evaporative losses under high temperature conditions put pressure on water reserves. In addition, hydrological processes in the eastern Central Water Tower are closely associated with historical drought and flood events, and in particular there is a link to the frequency of disasters at the end of dynasties, which provide warnings for stable social development. Pacific climate changes dominated by changes in global atmospheric circulation, especially El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phases, significantly affect hydrological processes in the eastern Central Water Tower by regulating large-scale circulations, such as the Pacific Walker Circulation, which alters the ocean-to-land water vapor transport. This study also reveals that the hydrological processes in the water source area and the receiving area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project are characterized by cross-scale coupling, which has been continuously enhanced in the 21st century. Therefore, there is an urgent need to strengthen water resources scheduling and management to address the crisis of input water resources uncertainty and the risk of cascading amplification brought by future climate change, and to ensure the sustainable supply of water resources and the long-term stable operation of projects. |
| Key words: tree rings eastern Central Water Tower middle route of South-North Water Diversion Project climate change composite hydrologic dynamics water resources management |
