| 摘要: |
| 内河船闸作为水路运输网络的关键节点，其运行应急管理能力的评估至关重要，但相关研究较少且缺乏有效评估方法。为此，本文提出了一种基于改进组合赋权与云模型的内河船闸运行应急管理能力评估方法。首先，依据PPRR理论，从应急预防、应急准备、应急响应和应急恢复四个维度构建了包含4个一级指标和30个二级指标的内河船闸应急管理能力评价指标体系，覆盖了从风险预防到事故恢复的全过程；其次，采用改进的G1法和改进的CRITIC法分别确定主客观权重，再通过博弈论确定各指标最优组合权重，确保了权重分配的合理性和科学性；最后，基于云模型实现对应急管理能力的量化评价，将定性概念与定量数据有效转换，解决了评估中的模糊性和随机性问题，直观展示评估结果。选取江苏省某船闸进行实证分析，评估其2020-2023年的运行应急管理能力，结果显示整体表现良好并呈上升趋势，与实际情况相符，验证了该模型的有效性和科学性。本研究为内河船闸运行应急管理能力的评估提供了系统化、可操作的方法论，为管理部门优化应急管理策略、提升管理效率提供了理论基础和实践指导。 |
| 关键词: 内河船闸 应急管理 云模型 G1法 CRITIC法 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:U641.7 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(52172303) |
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| Evaluation of inland lock operational emergency management capability based on improved combinatorial empowerment-cloud model |
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ZHANG Chengwei1, HU Hao1, LIAO Peng2, LIU Su3
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1.School of Ocean and Civil Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University;2.School of Transportation,Southeast University;3.CCCC Third Harbor Consultants Co., Ltd.
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| Abstract: |
| As critical nodes in waterway transportation networks, the evaluation of the operation emergency management ability of inland lock is very important, but relevant research is scarce and effective evaluation methods are lacking. To solve this problem, this paper proposes an evaluation model integrating improved combination weighting and cloud model for assessing emergency management capacity of inland locks. First, guided by the PPRR theory, a comprehensive evaluation index system was established encompassing four dimensions: emergency prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery. This system comprised 4 first-level indicators and 30 second-level indicators, covering the entire process from risk prevention to post-incident restoration. Second, an improved G1 method and modified CRITIC method were employed to determine subjective and objective weights respectively, then the game theory was used to optimize combination weights, ensuring rational and scientific weight allocation. Third, the cloud model was applied to achieve quantitative assessment of emergency management capabilities, effectively transforming qualitative concepts into quantitative data while addressing fuzziness and randomness in evaluations, thereby visualizing assessment outcomes. A ship lock in Jiangsu Province was selected as an example for empirical analysis, and its operational emergency management capability from 2020 to 2023 was evaluated. The overall performance was good and showed an upward trend, which was consistent with the actual situation, and verified the scientific, effective and rational of the model. This study provides a systematic and operable methodology for the evaluation of the emergency management ability of inland lock operation, and provides theoretical basis and practical guidance for the management department to optimize the emergency management strategy and improve the management efficiency, which has high application value. |
| Key words: inland lock emergency management ability cloud model G1 method CRITIC method |
