| 摘要: |
| 为定量解析河道下渗强烈的干旱半干旱地区径流变化及影响因子贡献率,本文采用Mann-Kendall检验法和有序聚类法分析水文气象时间序列演变特征并划分时期,在构建考虑河道下渗的MIKE SHE水文模型基础上,建立了高时空分辨率的径流变化贡献率分析方法,并在石川河流域开展应用验证。结果表明1972-2020年石川河流域上游柳林站径流序列上升趋势显著,而流域出口断面径流呈现下降趋势,流域降水序列突变年份不明显,蒸发和径流量序列突变年份分别为1979年和1976年、2009年。相对于基准期(1972-1979年),变化期Ⅰ(1980-2009年)和变化期Ⅱ(2010-2020年)内桃曲坡水库以上河段径流变化主要是由气候变化导致的；桃曲坡水库-富平段和富平-流域出口段径流演变主要受人类活动影响,贡献率高达130.4%~142.2%,其中取用水占主导地位；三个时期河道下渗量逐渐增大,单位河长年均下渗量最大的河段为桃曲坡水库-富平段。 |
| 关键词: 径流变化 水文模型 河道下渗 石川河流域 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年(52409037)；南京水利科学研究院研究生学位论文基金资助项目(Yy524023)；国家自然科学基金青年项目(52109027)；江苏省基础研究计划自然科学基金青年(BK20230122) |
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| Spatiotemporal evolution and attribution analysis of runoff in the Shichuan River Basin considering surface groundwater interaction |
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WANG Zongzhi, ZHANG Tingting, WANG Kun, BAI Ying
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Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention
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| Abstract: |
| To quantitatively analyze the runoff changes and contribution rates of influencing factors in arid and semi-arid areas with strong river infiltration, this paper uses Mann Kendall test and ordered clustering method to analyze the evolution characteristics of hydrological and meteorological time series and divide them into periods. Based on the construction of the MIKE SHE hydrological model considering river infiltration, a high spatiotemporal resolution runoff change contribution rate analysis method is established and applied in the Shichuan River Basin for verification. The results showed that the runoff sequence of Liulin Station in the upper reaches of the Shichuan River Basin showed a significant upward trend from 1972 to 2020, while the runoff at the outlet section of the basin showed a downward trend. The abrupt change years of precipitation sequence in the basin are not obvious, while the abrupt change years of evaporation and runoff sequence are 1979, 1976, and 2009, respectively. Compared to the reference period (1972-1979), the changes in runoff in the upper section of Taqupo Reservoir during the change period I (1980-2009) and change period II (2010-2020) were mainly caused by climate change. The runoff evolution of the Taoqupo Reservoir to Fuping section and Fuping to watershed outlet section is mainly influenced by human activities, with a contribution rate of 130.4% to 142.2%, among which water intake and use dominate. The infiltration amount of the river gradually increased during the three periods, and the section with the highest annual average infiltration amount per unit river was the Taoqupo Reservoir to Fuping section. |
| Key words: runoff change hydrological model river infiltration Shichuan River Basin |
