| 摘要: |
| 在全球气候变暖背景下，近百年黄河流域先后出现1922－1932年和1990－2002年两个连续枯水段，并给流域水资源安全造成了严重威胁。本文利用近百年径流、降水、环流及海温资料，从枯水状况、降水与大气环流特征、水汽条件、海温场异常等方面，探讨了这两个连续枯水段形成的天气成因。结果表明：1)与1922－1932年相比，1990－2002年黄河流域径流更枯；2)1922－1932年和1990－2002年黄河流域夏季降水都大范围偏少，特别是中游表现出成片干旱的特征，但1922－1932年干旱程度不及1990－2002年；3)造成1922－1932年和1990－2002年夏季降水偏少的原因是低层暖湿气流输送不足，这与低纬地区副高和印缅低压的形态和强度异常有关。1922－1932年夏季副高偏弱、偏东，印缅低压偏强，使得水汽输送通道偏东，1990－2002年夏季副高偏西，印缅低压偏弱，使得水汽输送通道偏南；4）赤道中东太平洋和北太平洋海温异常与黄河流域径流密切相关，其中北太平洋海温异常的不同，影响了两个连续枯水段夏季副高形态的差异，进而造成了两个连续枯水段径流的差异。此外，春季北太平洋海温异常可以作为黄河流域丰枯的预测指标。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源管理及决策服务提供技术支撑。 |
| 关键词: 黄河流域 连续枯水段 大气环流 海温 降水 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家“十四五”重点研发计划专项课题资助项目(2022YFC3202301-02) |
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| Comparative analysis of weather causes in two continuous low water periods of the Yellow River basin over the past hundred years |
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jin lijun
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Hydrological Bureau of YRCC
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| Abstract: |
| Under the background of global warming, there have been two continuous low water periods in the Yellow River basin over the past hundred years, from 1922 to 1932 and from 1990 to 2002, which have seriously threatened the water resources security of the basin. Based on the data of runoff, precipitation, circulation and SST in the last hundred years, the synoptic causes of the formation of these two continuous low water periods were discussed from the aspects of low water status, characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric circulation, water vapor conditions and SST anomalies. The results showed as follows: 1) Compared with 1922 to 1932, the runoff in the Yellow River basin was drier from 1990 to 2002; 2) Summer precipitation in the Yellow River basin during 1922 to 1932 and from 1990 to 2002 was generally low, especially the middle reaches of the Yellow River was widespread drought. However, the severity of the drought 1922 to 1932 was not as severe as in 1990 to 2002; 3) The reason for the relatively low summer precipitation in 1922 to 1932 and 1990 to 2002 was due to the insufficient transport of warm and humid air in the lower layers, which was related to the abnormal form and intensity of the subtropical high and Indo-Burma low pressure in the low latitudes. In the summer of 1922 to 1932, the subtropical high was weak and eastward, and the Indo-Myanmar low pressure was strong, causing the water vapor transport channel to be eastward. In the summer of 1990 to 2002, the subtropical high was westward, and the Indo-Myanmar low pressure was weak, causing the water vapor transport channel to be southward. 4) SST anomalies in the equatorial Middle East Pacific and the North Pacific were closely related to the runoff of the Yellow River basin. The difference of SST anomalies in the North Pacific affected the difference of the summer subtropical high form between the two continuous low water periods, thus causing the difference of runoff between the two continuous low water periods. In addition, the spring SST anomaly in the North Pacific Ocean can be used as a predictor of abundance and decline in the Yellow River basin. The research results can provide technical support for water resources management and decision-making services in the Yellow River basin. |
| Key words: Yellow River basin continuous low water periods atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature precipitation |
