| 摘要: |
| 南沙区作为广州市副中心,其洪潮防御问题一直备受关注。本文基于珠江三角洲河网及广州南沙区洪潮淹没二维水动力数学模型,提出洪潮防御能力提升方案,通过情景模拟定量分析现状标准和未来海平面上升、地面沉降及超标准情况下洪潮过程,对比不同情况下南沙区淹没情况。结果表明:风暴潮主要影响南沙区西北部和东南部,上游洪水主要影响西北部,在现状标准情况下南沙区淹没面积分别为59km2和48km2；纯堤防方案在现状标准情况下可以避免发生淹没,在未来30年海平面上升、地面沉降情况下以风暴潮为主场景下的淹没范围为22km2；闸堤结合方案在上游洪水为主场景下对淹没范围作用不明显,在风暴潮为主场景下对河道潮位、流量有一定影响,可以提高西北区域联围的风暴潮防御能力,与纯堤防方案相比,在未来海平面上升、地面沉降情况下淹没范围可减少50%,在超标准风暴潮情况下减幅为12%~18%。研究成果可为南沙区的洪潮安全保障能力提升提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 南沙区 洪潮风险 提升方案 水动力模型 情景模拟 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV663.2????????????? |
| 基金项目: |
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| Research on Flood and Tidal Resilience Enhancement Schemes and Effectiveness Analysis in Nansha District, Guangzhou |
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Zhang Taotao1, Liu Wuxian2, Xiao Yang2, Wen Yan3, Jin Gaoyang4, Xu Huirong3, Zhou Ying5
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1.Suzhou University of Science and Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering.;2.Hohai University, College of Hydraulic and Hydropower Engineering.;3.Guangdong Water Resources and Electric Power Survey, Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd.;4.China Water Resources Pearl River Planning, Surveying and Design Co., Ltd.;5.Nansha District Water Resources Bureau, Guangzhou
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| Abstract: |
| As a sub-center of Guangzhou, Nansha District has long been a focus of attention regarding flood and tide defense issues. Based on a two-dimensional hydrodynamic mathematical model of flood and tide inundation in the Pearl River Delta river network and Nansha District, this study proposes an enhancement plan for flood and tide defense capabilities. Through scenario simulations, we quantitatively analyze the current standards and the impacts of future sea-level rise, land subsidence, and super-standard scenarios on flood and tide processes, comparing the inundation conditions in Nansha District under different scenarios. The results indicate that storm surges primarily affect the northwest and southeast parts of Nansha District, while upstream floods mainly impact the northwest. Under the current standards, the inundation areas in Nansha District are 59 km2 and 48 km2, respectively. A pure levee solution can prevent inundation under current standards, and in scenarios of future sea-level rise and land subsidence, the inundation area under storm surge-dominated conditions is 22 km2.The combined gate and levee solution shows limited impact on inundation areas under upstream flood-dominated scenarios, while under storm surge-dominated scenarios, it has a certain effect on river tide levels and flow rates, improving the storm surge defense capacity in the northwest region. Compared to the pure levee solution, the combined solution can reduce the inundation area by 50% under future sea-level rise and land subsidence scenarios, and by 12% to 18% under super-standard storm surge conditions. The research findings provide a reference for enhancing the flood and tide safety assurance capabilities in Nansha District. |
| Key words: Nansha District flood risk enhancement plan hydrodynamic model scenario simulation. |
