| 摘要: |
| 中小河流防洪预报预见期短、预报难度大,传统基于落地雨监测信息的洪水预报方法难以满足数字孪生防洪“四预”建设需求。为此,本文提出了基于雨水情监测预报“三道防线”信息的防洪多要素实时预报方法及其精度评价指标,并将其应用于数字孪生黄垒河流域建设中。2023年8月28日的暴雨洪水事件检验结果表明,考虑“三道防线”信息后,花家疃水库水位/流量过程预报平均相对误差降低至许可误差以内；花家疃水库入库洪峰预报的有效预见期由3h提前至30h,入库流量过程预报有效预见期延长约3h,水库水位过程预报有效预见期延长约20h。本文提出的基于“三道防线”的中小河流防洪预报方法,可充分利用第一道防线信息,延长防洪预报预见期,并利用第二、三道防线提升预报精度。 |
| 关键词: 防洪预报 数字孪生流域 三道防线 中小河流 黄垒河流域 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV1 |
| 基金项目:江苏省自然科学基金资助项目（BK20211023）；南京水利科学院研究院基金项目（Y523004）；浙江省水利厅科技计划项目（RA2201） |
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| Flood forecasting method based on "three lines of flood defense" and application in middle and small rivers |
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Ding Qi1, Wang Zongzhi1,2, Du Huihua1, Liu Kelin1
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1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention;2.Hohai University, Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development
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| Abstract: |
| The forecasting period for flood control in small and medium-sized rivers is short, and the forecasting difficulty is high. Traditional flood forecasting method based on ground rain monitoring information is difficult to meet the needs of digital twin flood control "four predictions" construction. This article proposes a real-time flood control multi factor forecasting method and its accuracy evaluation index based on the information of "three lines of flood defense" through rainfall monitoring and forecasting, and applies it to the digital twin construction in the Huanglei River Basin. The test results of the rainstorm flood event on August 28, 2023 show that, after considering the information of "three lines of flood defense", The average relative error of Huajiatan reservoir water level/discharge process forecast is reduced to within the limit error. The effective forecast period for the peak inflow of Huajiatuan Reservoir has been advanced from 3 hours to 30 hours, the effective forecast period for the inflow process has been extended by about 3 hours, and the effective forecast period for the reservoir water level process has been extended by about 20 hours. The flood control forecasting method for small and medium-sized rivers based on the "three lines of flood defense" proposed in this article can fully utilize the information of the first line of defense, extend the forecast period of flood control forecasting, and improve the forecasting accuracy by using the second and third lines of defense. |
| Key words: flood control forecasting digital twin watershed three lines of flood defense small and medium-sized rivers Huanglei River Basin |
