| 摘要: |
| 预警是数字孪生流域建设中“水资源管理与调配”业务应用的重要组成部分，在精准应对区域水资源短缺中发挥着重要作用。本研究认为“水资源管理与调配”业务应用的要点是“不足水量的科学安排”，基于此提出了“渐进式预警”概念并对其内涵进行解析，确定了基于气象干旱、农业干旱、水文干旱、社会经济干旱的渐进式预警指标和阈值，以及计算方法和数据来源，最后在黄垒河流域进行了实例应用。结果表明，本研究提出的渐进式预警体系既能提前准确预警黄垒河流域未来发生的干旱事件，也能从多角度展示不同干旱类型的变化特征，为管理者提供丰富的预警信息，同时构建的数字孪生系统运行稳定，对提升黄垒河流域应对干旱缺水能力具有重要支撑。研究成果对数字孪生流域建设，特别是“水资源管理与调配”业务应用的开展提供了借鉴与参考。 |
| 关键词: 渐进式预警 预警指标 数字孪生流域 黄垒河流域 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV213 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（U2240223），国家重点研发项目（2023YFC3006601），重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项项目（CSTB2022TIAD-GPX0077） |
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| Method and Application of Early Warning for River Basin Water Resources Management and Allocation |
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Long Jiang1, Nan Ru2, Kun Wang3, Liang Cheng3, DU Huihua4, Zongzhi Wang3
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1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University;2.Science and Technology Promotion Centre, Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China;3.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute;4.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention
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| Abstract: |
| Early warning constitutes a pivotal component of the "water resources management and allocation" modules in the construction of digital twin basins, playing a vital role in effectively responding to regional water shortages. Based on the key principle of "scientific arrangement of insufficient water of the "water resources management and allocation" modules, the concept of "progressive early warning" was proposed, along with an analysis of its connotation. The progressive early warning indicators and thresholds based on meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic drought were proposed, as well as the determination method and data source. Subsequently, an illustrative application was executed in the Huanglei River Basin. The results showed that: (1) the progressive early warning method proposed in this article can not only accurately warn of future drought events of the Huanglei River, but also illuminate the dynamic characteristics of different types of drought, providing managers with rich early warning information; (2) the constructed digital twin system operated with stability, thereby furnishing crucial support for enhancing the Huanglei River"s capacity to respond to drought situations. The research results provide a reference for the construction of digital twin watersheds, especially the development of water resource management and allocation applications. |
| Key words: progressive early warning early warning indicators digital twin basin Huanglei River Basin |
