| 摘要: |
| 针对已有水资源系统模拟与调度模型难以满足水资源调配与管理“正反向预演”对水资源多要素模拟预测、复杂调控规则灵活高效优化的问题。本文在梳理流域水资源预演需求基础上,提出根据孪生关键节点划分水资源系统基本单元的思路,并给出系统概化原则、单元建模方法,以及可模拟不同调度方案下系统可用水-来水-需水-用水-缺水多要素动态变化的流域水资源综合模拟模型；在模拟模型基础上,提出可适用不同调度目标的优化调度模型构建方法。上述模型方法在黄垒河流域数字孪生平台建设中得到了应用检验,典型干旱年(2015年)复盘和实时缺水事件(2023年5月)动态研判结果表明,该模型方法实现了流域水资源多要素全过程模拟计算和指定目标下地表水库、河道闸坝、取水用工程调度规则高效优化,可为水资源预演中常规调度方案下研判发现问题、决策会商下预演调度决策影响、指定目标下优化调度方案提供有力模型支撑。 |
| 关键词: 数字孪生 水资源调配与管理 水资源系统模拟 黄垒河流域 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV213 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发课题(202YFC30002)；国家自然科学基金青年(52409037)；江苏省基础研究计划自然科学基金青年(BK20230122)；南京水利科学院研究院(Y523004)； |
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| Real-time simulation and scheduling model of water resources system supporting water resources preview |
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WANG Kun1,2,3,2,4,2, Wang Zongzhi1, YU Changwang3, ZHANG Weina3, JIANG Long4, CHENG Liang1, DING Qi1
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1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention;2.China;3.Weihai Water Resources Affairs Service Center;4.College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University
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| Abstract: |
| Aiming at the problem that the existing water resources system simulation and scheduling models cannot meet the requirements of water resources preview for multi-factor prediction and optimization of complex regulation rules, and it is difficult to support the "positive and negative preview" of water resources allocation and management in digital twin basins. This proposed a real-time simulation and scheduling model of water resources system for basins driven by multi-factor forecast information of water resources. Firstly, according to the demand of watershed water resources preview, the water resources system can be divided into four basic units: runoff production, river reach, regulation and storage nodes and groundwater. Then, the system generalization principle, unit calculation formula and the parameterization method of scheduling rules are given, and a comprehensive simulation model of basin water resources supporting the forward preview of conventional scheduling scheme and specified scheduling rules is established. On this basis, a real-time rolling optimal scheduling model construction method which can adapt to different scheduling objectives is proposed. In order to verify the effectiveness of the modeling method, a case study was carried out in Huanglei River Basin. The results show that the comprehensive simulation and optimization model of water resources can realize the multi-factor simulation calculation of the whole process of inflow, storage, water supply and water shortage in the basin, and the efficient optimization of the scheduling rules of surface reservoirs, river gates and DAMS, and water intake projects under the specified target. It can provide strong model support for finding problems under the conventional water resource scheduling scheme, predicting the impact of scheduling decision under the decision meeting, and optimizing scheduling scheme under the specified target. The research results have been applied to the digital twin platform in Huanglei River Basin, which has improved the level of water resources management in the basin. |
| Key words: digital twins water resources allocation and management water resources system simulation Huanglei River basin |
