| 摘要: |
| 土石坝溃坝洪水风险评估对于溃坝应急预案编制和抢险救灾具有至关重要的意义。目前土石坝溃坝洪水流量过程计算时对复杂结构坝体溃决机理考虑较少，溃坝洪水损失评估方法考虑的影响因素不够全面。本文提出了一个机理-数据双驱动的土石坝溃坝洪水模拟与损失评估方法，可考虑土石坝的溃坝过程、溃坝洪水演进过程，并采用贝叶斯模型定量评估溃坝洪水导致的生命与经济损失。评估方法主要包括三个主要模块：溃坝过程模拟方法，溃坝演进洪水致灾因子计算方法，生命与经济损失评估方法。采用本文提出的方法对2018年我国射月沟溃坝案例进行反演分析，计算结果与实测值相比，溃口洪水峰值流量、溃口最终尺寸和溃口峰值流量出现时间的相对误差在±15%之内，淹没区典型断面最高水位的最大误差为-0.21 m，淹没区生命损失相差1人，验证了提出的风险评估方法计算结果的合理性。本文的研究成果可为溃坝洪水应急防控和防灾减灾提供科技支撑。 |
| 关键词: 土石坝 溃口流量 洪水演进 生命损失 经济损失 风险评估 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV698.2??????????????? |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金联合基金重点支持项目(U22A20602)；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Y324006) |
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| Study on flood simulation and loss assessment methods for embankment dam breaching |
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JIANG Zhengchun1, CHEN Xiaokang1, DU Zhenhan2, YANG Meng1, SHAN Yibo1, ZHONG Qiming1
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1.Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute;2.Department of Dam Safety Management, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
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| Abstract: |
| The assessment of flood risk caused by embankment dam breaching is crucial for the formulation of emergency response plans and disaster relief efforts. Currently, the calculation of flood discharge from embankment dam breaching often inadequately considers the complex structural mechanisms of dam breaching, and the methods for evaluating flood losses are not sufficiently comprehensive. This study presents a mechanism-data dual-driven approach for flood simulation and loss assessment method due to embankment dam breaching. This approach accounts for both the breach process and the flood evolution, employing a Bayesian model to quantitatively assess the resultant loss of life and economic impacts. The assessment method comprises three main modules: (1) breach process simulation, (2) calculation of disaster-inducing factors during flood evolution, and (3) evaluation of life and economic losses. The proposed method is applied to a case study of the 2018 Sheyuegou dam breach in China. The results of the inversion analysis demonstrate that the relative errors of the peak flood discharge, final breach dimensions, and peak flow timing are within ±15% compared to the measured values. The maximum error in the highest water level at typical cross-sections of the inundated area is -0.21 m, and the difference in estimated life loss is one person. These results validate the reasonableness of the proposed quantitative risk assessment method. The findings of this study provide scientific support for emergency management and disaster reduction efforts related to flood risk due to embankment dam breaching. |
| Key words: embankment dam breaching breach discharge flood evolution life loss economic loss risk assessment |
