| 摘要: |
| 本文基于降雨与洪水特征指标,依据1996—2023年黄土高原典型流域窟野河转龙湾站的径流数据和降水数据,利用主成分分析和K均值聚类方法对雨洪过程进行相似性判别,采用不同回归方法构建雨洪定量关系,量化分析了三种类型的洪水与降雨特征指标的相关性。研究结果表明,短历时单峰型洪水以多元线性回归效果最优,长历时高孤峰型洪水和小流量多峰型洪水采用逐步回归拟合结果较好。本文结论进一步揭示了黄土高原典型流域的雨洪特性,为雨洪资源的高效利用、旱涝灾害等极端事件的防治提供了参考依据。 |
| 关键词: 相似性判别 雨洪关系 多元线性回归 逐步回归 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV122????? |
| 基金项目:内蒙古自治区“揭榜挂帅”项目（编号：2023JBGS0007），国家自然科学基金项目（编号：U2243228，52409035）,南京水利科学研究院基本科研业务费青年基金项目（Y524005） |
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| Quantitative relationship construction and similarity discrimination of rainfall and flood processes in typical watersheds of the Loess Plateau |
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GAO Junjie,XIE Kang,WANG Guoqing,BAI Shiming,YANG Na,LIU Cuishan
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1.Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;2.Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources
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| Abstract: |
| Based on rainfall and flood characteristic indicators, it utilizes runoff and precipitation data from Zhuanglongwan Station of the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau during 1996 to 2023. It employs principal component analysis and K-means clustering to assess the similarity of rainfall-runoff processes and applies various regression methods to establish quantitative relationships. The study quantitatively analyzes the correlation between three types of floods characteristic indicators. The results indicate that for short-duration single-peak floods, multivariate linear regression provides the best fit. For long-duration high-peaked floods and small-flow multi-peak floods, stepwise regression yields better fitting results. The conclusions enhance the understanding of rainfall-runoff characteristics in the Yellow River Basin and provide a reference for the efficient utilization of water resources and the prevention and control of droughts and floods. |
| Key words: Similarity discrimination Rainwater-flood relationship Multiple linear regression Regression |
