| 摘要: |
| 城市土地利用变化改变了产汇流关系，对洪涝灾害的发生造成了深刻影响。以杭州城西区域作为典型研究对象，利用PLUS（patch-generating land use simulation）模型预测未来土地利用情景，构建SWMM（Storm Water Management Model）模型，分析区域产汇流变化情况。结果表明：（1）PLUS模型可以预测研究区域未来土地利用情景，预计到2030年，建设用地将增加到14756 ha，耕地将减小到8723 ha。（2）构建的SWMM模型误差在±10%内，能够较好的模拟研究区的产汇流过程；（3）从1980到2030年区域总体不透水率增加了27.91%，50 a一遇和100 a一遇两种情景下的洪峰流量增加了281.4 m3/s和301.5 m3/s，洪水总量增加了6964594 m3和7507033 m3；（4）SWMM模型模拟的洪峰流量、洪水总量与区域建设用地占比之间呈较好的线性关系。研究成果对认识城市化对产汇流过程的影响机理具有重要的科学意义，对城市洪涝灾害防治具有重要的科技支撑。 |
| 关键词: 城市化 产汇流 土地利用变化 PLUS模型 SWMM模型 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(52121006)；杭嘉湖南排工程科研项目“立体韧性城市洪涝防控体系构建研究” |
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| The Influence of Land Use Changes on Runoff Generation and Concentration in the West Urban Area of Hangzhou |
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WANG Bin1, YAN Xiaolin2,3,4, BAO Zhenxin1, WANG Jie1, WU Houfa5, WANG Zejun1
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1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute;2.Unit 31110 of Chinese People'3.'4.s Liberation Army;5.Yangtze River Survey, Planning and Design Research Co., Ltd
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| Abstract: |
| Changes in urban land use significantly alter runoff generation and confluence dynamics, deeply impacting flood risk. This study focuses on the western region of Hangzhou as a representative area, employing the PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model to project future land use scenarios and constructing the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) to analyze variations in runoff and confluence patterns. The results demonstrate that: (1) The PLUS model effectively forecasts future land use in the study area, with projections indicating that by 2030, construction land will increase to 14,756 ha while arable land will decrease to 8,723 ha. (2) The developed SWMM model exhibits an error margin within ±10%, accurately simulating the runoff generation and confluence processes in the study area. (3) Between 1980 and 2030, the region’s overall impervious surface ratio is projected to rise by 27.91%, leading to peak discharge increases of 281.4 m3/s and 301.5 m3/s under 50-year and 100-year return period scenarios, respectively. Additionally, total flood volume is expected to rise by 6,964,594 m3 and 7,507,033 m3. (4) The SWMM model results reveal a strong linear correlation between peak discharge, total flood volume, and the proportion of construction land. These findings provide crucial scientific insights into the impacts of urbanization on runoff and confluence mechanisms and offer valuable technological support for urban flood management and disaster mitigation strategies. |
| Key words: Urbanization runoff generation and concentration land use change PLUS SWMM |
