| 摘要: |
| 科学认识流域实际发生暴雨洪水特性，总结洪水特征及其对致洪暴雨特征响应关系和产汇流规律，对于流域洪水精准精细模拟与预报具有重要意义。本文以大汶河流域为研究区域，基于2001-2022年实测降雨洪水时间序列资料，整理了场次暴雨洪水，选取降水空间矩、洪水集中度等指标表征暴雨洪水特征，采用Kendall秩相关分析研究暴雨洪水响应关系，并对流域降水-径流关系进行了统计分析。结果表明：（1）大汶河洪水的流域降雨量呈现东多西少特征，洪水相应的暴雨事件常覆盖全流域1/3到1/2面积，暴雨中心多集中在上游大中型水库附近；（2）北支牟汶河子流域洪水总量统计均值大，是大汶河洪水的主要来源，其洪水特征值与致洪暴雨强度存在弱正相关，但与一阶降水空间矩呈负相关，表明子流域内部具有较强的调蓄能力，而南支柴汶河子流域则相反；（3）大汶河流域洪水产流表现为蓄满产流为主、兼有超渗产流的特点，其中大戴区间近22年降雨事件中产流很少，这与其区间特殊的富水性地质条件及中小洪水条件灌区引水密切相关，需在流域水文模拟与洪水预报时特别关注。 |
| 关键词: 大汶河流域 场次暴雨洪水 Kendall秩相关分析 降雨径流关系 产流机制 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202604)；江苏省水利科技项目(2021048,2021001)；国家自然科学(51709178) |
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| Characteristics of Rainstorm and Flood in Dawen River Basin from 2001 to 2022 and their Relationships |
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JIA Benyou1, LI Dongzhou1, YANG Fan1, SUN Xiaoming2, GAO Jinjin1, SU Kun1, BI Zhengzheng3, FAN Ziwu1
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1.Nanjing Hydaulic Research Institute;2.Dongping Lake Authority of Shandong Yellow River Bureau;3.North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
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| Abstract: |
| Scientific understanding of the characteristics of rainstorm and flood, and the law of runoff generation in a basin is of great significance for accurate flood simulation and forecasting. This paper takes the Dawen River basin as a case study, based on the observed rainfall and flood data from 2001 to 2022, collates the rainstorm and flood events, selects the spatial moment of precipitation, flood concentration and other indicators to characterize the characteristics of rainstorm and flood, uses Kendall rank correlation analysis to study the response relationship of rainstorm and flood, and conducts statistical analysis on the relationship between precipitation and runoff in the basin. Results show that: (1) The rainfall in the Dawen River flood is more in the east than in the west, the corresponding rainstorm events often cover 1/3 to 1/2 of the whole basin, and the rainstorm centers are mostly concentrated near large & medium reservoirs in the upstream; (2) The statistical mean value of the total flood in the Mouwen River sub-basin in the north branch is large, which is the main source of flood in the Dawen River. The flood characteristic value is weakly positively correlated with the intensity of the flood causing rainstorm, but negatively correlated with the first order spatial moment of precipitation, indicating that this sub-basin has a strong internal regulation and storage capacity, while the Chaiwen River sub-basin in the south branch is the opposite; (3) The flood production in the Dawen River basin is mainly characterized by full storage and seepage, with little runoff generated during rainfall events in the past 22 years. This is closely related to the special water rich geological conditions and water intake outside river for small & medium floods in the Dadai region. Special attention should be paid to hydrological simulation and flood forecasting in this region. |
| Key words: Dawen River Rainstorm floods Precipitation runoff relationship Runoff generation Statistical analysis |
