| 摘要: |
| 在气候变化和人类活动共同影响下，流域径流发生了很大变化。尤其是海河流域，水资源匮乏的现象更为严重，分析水资源变化趋势对实现水资源的可持续开发利用具有重要意义。根据海河流域实际地形地貌特征及水文站分布情况，选取观台、响水堡、张家坟、下会和桃林口等5个水文站所在的区域，采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法及线性回归方法，分析检验各典型区域年径流量的历史变化趋势。基于半分布式流域水文模型——TOPMODEL，采用水文模拟的途径，定量评估了典型区域气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。归因结果表明：除桃林口外的其他4个水文站的年径流量均呈显著减小趋势，海河典型区域年径流减小主要跟人类活动有关，其占比都在65%以上。人类活动对观台、张家坟和响水堡站径流量减小的影响占比为65%~70%，对桃林口站径流量减小的影响占比为75.4%，对下会站径流量减小的影响占比高达81.7%，主要原因是海河流域自20世纪60年代中后期以来进行大规模水利建设所产生的水文效应。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 人类活动 Mann Kendall检验 归因分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV12 |
| 基金项目:中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2015ZD070501)；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目（YJZS1515005，Y917006） |
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| Analysis of runoff change trend and its attribution in Haihe River basin |
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ZHANG Liru1, HE Yonghui2, TANG Yueping1, WANG Guoqing2
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1.Nanjing Automation Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydrology, Nanjing;2.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing
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| Abstract: |
| Under the influences of climate change and human activities, great changes in the runoff of watershed have taken place. Especially in the Haihe River basin, a water resources shortage phenomenon is more serious, hence it is very important to analyze the trends of water resources for sustainable development of the water resources. According to the characteristics of actual landform and the distribution of hydrological stations in the Haihe River basin, the historical variation trends of the annual runoff in the five selected typical watersheds of the Haihe River basin are tested with the Mann-Kendall method and the linear regression method. Based on the semi-distributed hydrological model-TOPMODEL, the quantitative assessment of the impacts of the climate change and human activities on variation in runoff is made. And the analysis results indicate that there is a significant trend in the recorded runoff at each key hydrometric station with the exception of the Taolinkou station. The reduced runoff is mainly related to the human activities, and the influenced range is more than 65%. The responses of runoff to the human activities is between 65%~70% for the Guantai station, Zhangjiafen station and Xiangshuibao station, and the response for other two is 81.7% and 75.4% respectively. The main cause is hydrological effects generated by large scale water conservancy construction in the Haihe River basin since the 1960's. |
| Key words: climate change human activity Mann Kendall testing attribution analysis |
