| 摘要: |
| 选取1965—2014年辽宁省23个气象站的逐日降水量资料，利用趋势分析法、小波分析法和普通克里金空间插值法对研究区大雨与暴雨事件进行时空变化特征分析，结果表明：①辽宁省大雨天数在20世纪60至70年代以增大趋势为主，80年代起转为减少趋势。大雨强度在20世纪60年代中后期和21世纪初主要呈现增大趋势，中间时段以减少趋势为主。暴雨天数和暴雨强度在1984年以后均呈现稳定的增加趋势。②大雨与暴雨事件的周期变化具有一致性特征，均存在34年左右的主周期和19年左右的次周期。③大雨与暴雨事件的空间分布均呈现出由辽东南（丹东为中心）向辽西北（朝阳为中心）逐渐减少的变化特征。此外，从空间趋势变化来讲，除大雨天数外的其他指标在全省范围内均以增加为主，辽宁省西北部地区洪涝灾害风险较小，防洪减灾工作应重点集中在中东部地区。 |
| 关键词: 大雨事件 暴雨事件 变化趋势 空间分布 辽宁省 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P333.2 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51579126, 51279072)；中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室开放基金(IAM201511) |
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| Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of heavy rainfall and rainstorm in Liaoning Province over past 50 years |
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ZHANG Liangliang, CAO Yongqiang, ZHU Mingming
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School of Urban Planning and Environmental Science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the daily precipitation data obtained from 23 meteorological stations located in Liaoning Province during the period of 1965—2014, the analyses of the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the heavy rainfall and rainstorm events in the study area are carried out by using trend analysis, wavelet analysis and Kriging spatial interpolation methods. The analysis results show that: ① the heavy rainfall days in the 60 s to 70 s of the twentieth century mainly showed an tendency to increase and in the 80s to decrease. The intensity of the heavy rainfall in the mid-late 1960s and early twenty-first century mainly showed a trend to increase, and it mainly showed a trend to decrease at a middle period (i.e. from 1970s to early 1980s). And both the rainstorm days and the rainstorm intensity showed a trend to stably increase after 1984; ② the periodic variation of the heavy rainfall and rainstorm events were characterized by a consistency, which covers a main period of 34 years and a secondary period of 19 years; ③ the spatial distribution of the heavy rainfall and rainstorm events showed a change characteristic of gradual decrease from the southeast (Dandong) to the northwest (Chaoyang) of Liaoning Province. In addition, as for the changes in spatial tendency, other indices showed the tendency to increase in Liaoning Province with the exception of the heavy rainfall days. The increasing range of the heavy rainfall days was almost equivalent to the decreasing range. The heavy rainfall intensity and rainstorm events have the main trend to increase in Liaoning Province. Therefore, the flood control and disaster mitigation should be focused on its central and eastern regions, because there is a greater risk of the flood disaster and surface waterlogging caused by the heavy rainfall intensity and rainstorm. |
| Key words: heavy rainfall events rainstorm events spatiotemporal variation trend spatial distribution Liaoning Province |
