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| 灰色模型改进的大坝变形分形几何监控模型 |
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李萌1,2,3, 包腾飞1,2,3, 杨建慧4, 任杰1,2,3
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1.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏南京;2.河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心，江苏南京;3.河海大学水利水电学院，江苏南京;4.大唐环境产业集团股份有限公司，北京
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| 摘要: |
| 为了对大坝安全进行准确监控，利用分形几何理论预测大坝变形。针对一般常维分形分布不能很好分析大坝变形数据的问题，对监测数据进行N阶累计和变换，对变换后的数据利用分段变维分形模型计算各阶变形维数序列，再选择效果较好分形维数已知序列预测未知分形维数，最后反推大坝变形预测数据。针对传统变维分形预测模型分形维数预测方法的不确定性和所需监测数据量大的缺点，利用灰色模型预测分形维数，建立改进的大坝分形几何监控模型。结合工程实例，对比插值法预测分形参数的传统分形几何预测模型和灰色模型改进后的预测模型之间的预测精度，结果表明，改进分形模型不仅在预测精度上有所提高，而且更具稳定性和抗波动性。 |
| 关键词: 大坝变形 监控模型 分形理论 灰色模型 位移预测 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV698.1 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51579086，51479054，51379068，51139001)；江苏省杰出青年基金资助项目（BK20140039）；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（水利工程）（YS11001） |
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| Fractal geometry monitoring model for dam deformation based on improved grey model |
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LI Meng1,2,3, BAO Teng-fei1,2,3, YANG Jian-hui4, REN Jie1,2,3
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1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering，Hohai University，Nanjing;2.National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing;3.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University， Nanjing;4.Datang Environment Industry Group Co., Ltd., Beijing
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper, the fractal geometry theory is used to predict dam deformation, which can help to monitor the dam safety accurately. It is difficult to use a constant dimension fractal model to analyse and forecast the dam deformation data. Therefore, a variable dimension fractal model is applied to analyse dam deformation. Firstly, the monitoring data are taken into a transform of cumulative sum of N order. Then, we calculate fractal dimension sequence of each order and choose the best sequence. Finally, the dam deformation forecasting data are calculated in turn. Considering the problem that the traditional prediction method of the fractal dimension is uncertain and that the amount of required monitoring data is large, the prediction of the fractal dimension is made to establish an improved dam fractal geometry monitoring model by use of a grey model. Analysis results show that, based on practical engineering, by comparing the prediction precision of the traditional fractal geometry monitoring model and the improved model, the prediction accuracy of the improved model is better, and the model has the stability of prediction and the resistance to volatility. |
| Key words: dam deformation monitoring model fractal theory grey model displacement prediction |
