| 摘要: |
| 目前，我国水库突发事件应急预案普遍存在可行性不强、可行性评价技术不过关的问题，难以在技术层面监督指导应急预案的编制工作，一定程度上影响了水库突发事件应急预案的实施。已有大坝突发事件应急预案可行性评价方法初步研究中，由于指标体系的不完备，可行性评价具有显著灰色特征，为减弱指标体系不完备带来的灰色特征的影响，有必要研究新方法以降低指标体系不完备对评价结果的影响。基于水库突发事件应急预案可行性评价的已有研究成果，考虑到可行性指标体系的不完备性等灰色特征，建立了基于灰色关联度的可行性评价方法，通过案例模拟验证了可行性评价方法的实用性。该方法完善了已有水库突发事件应急预案可行性评价技术，降低了可行性指标体系不完备等灰色特征对评价结果准确性的不利影响。 |
| 关键词: 水库 突发事件 应急预案 可行性 灰色关联度 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV697 |
| 基金项目:水利部公益性行业科研专项（201501033, 201201051）；南京水利科学研究院基金资助项目（Y915001,Y715016,Y715013） |
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| Further studies of feasibility evaluation method for reservoir emergency preparation plan |
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ZHANG Shi-chen1,2, LONG Zhi-fei1,2
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1.Key Laboratory of Failure Mechanism and Safety Control Techniques of Earth-Rock Dam of MWR, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing;2.Dam Safety Management Center of MWR, Nanjing
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| Abstract: |
| At present, the feasibility of the emergency preparation plan (EPP) for dam reservoirs is uncertain; and the appraisal technology of EPP feasibility is still inadequate, which leads to difficult supervision of EPP making and in some extent affects the EPP making and relevant enforcement work. In the researches on EPP appraisal methods which have been studied by other experts and scholars, EPP feasibility appears to have a notable characteristic that comes from index incompleteness. This incompleteness can affect the implement results of EPP feasibility appraisal. In order to reduce the effects given by the index incompleteness, it is necessary for us to carry out studies of new appraisal methods for EPP feasibility. Based on the existing research findings of reservoir EPP feasibility evaluation methods, considering a gray feature in the feasibility evaluation system with the index incompleteness, a new evaluation method is established based on a grey correlation degree, and its availability is verified through the simulation of case histories. This method is used to improve reservoir EPP feasibility evaluation technology and reduce the impact extents for the evaluation results considering the incompleteness of the feasibility index system. |
| Key words: reservoir emergency event emergency preparation plan (EPP) EPP feasibility grey correlation degree |
